Remember that Christmas Eve from Hell episode of The Bear where Carmy’s dream is a nice, drama-free family dinner? One with no yelling and (fingers crossed), no meltdowns, just good italian food and small talk. Then Mikey starts chirping at Uncle Lee, voices get louder, a fork gets yeeted across the table, and Mom caps the night by driving her car straight through the dining room wall.

Yeah. That’s India’s vibe at the geopolitical dinner table right now… hoping for dessert, but fully aware there’s a nonzero chance the whole thing ends with them footing a massive bill of disappointment and regret.

You see, for the past two years, Delhi’s been inhaling discounted Russian crude like the stuff is illegal. We’re talking $10-$15 below Brent prices while the West has been busy trying to choke Moscow’s oil revenues. For instance, back in 2021, Russian oil made up just 3% of India’s imports. But now? Try 35-40%. That’s way more than a fling… that’s “we adopted a dog, share a Netflix account, and have matching hoodies with each other’s faces on them” committed.

(Source: Hindustan Times)

And it makes sense when you look at the numbers. The move has saved India billions, kept fuel prices low for 1.4 billion people, and given inflation the kind of sedative that would drop a rhino. But it’s also pissed off Washington… specifically Daddy Donald, who’s been telling India Prime Minister Modi to knock it off or face “serious consequences.” (Morgan Freeman narrator voice: they in fact, did not knock it off). Which brings us to today’s Trump-Putin summit in… Alaska. The only place you can discuss ending a war in Europe while a guy in a camouflage jacket sells you elk jerky in the lobby. Of course, Trump’s mission is to convince Putin to call a Ukraine ceasefire.

If Putin says yes, sanctions could crack open, Russian crude could rush into the market like concertgoers when the gates open, and prices could crash into the $50s at the first whiff of oversupply. That’s great for anyone who drives, a windfall for India, and basically a championship parade for Delhi… which gets to keep mainlining cheap oil without Washington breathing down its neck.

If it flops? Well… welcome to “strap in, hold your butts” territory. Trump’s already hit India with a 25% penalty on Russian crude plus another 25% on Russian weapons. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that if Alaska doesn’t produce progress, those tariffs could go “up”... and in Trump-speak, “up” is somewhere between 50% and “congrats, you’re Cuba now.” That hike is set for August 27, and in addition to dinging energy imports… it would destroy India’s textile, jewelry, and manufacturing exports. Economists say it could carve 0.5% off GDP… which, for the fastest-growing large economy, is like losing a whole arm in a bar fight (and still having to pick up the tab).

Meanwhile, oil prices have the same stability as a shopping cart with a busted wheel. Brent’s hovering at $65.95, WTI’s parked at $62.99, and traders are split between bracing for a flood or betting on a drought. UBS says a ceasefire could unleash a wave of Russian barrels, Bank of America’s calling for an extra million a day sloshing around for the next year, and China’s retail data is moving like molasses in January.

Russia could use the cash, too. July’s oil and gas revenues fell 27% year over year, and running a war isn’t exactly cheap… the cheapest, most effective alternative being, you know, ending it. If sanctions ease, Putin gets a little financial elbow room. If not, his budget’s going to feel like trying to fit a week’s worth of groceries into a single plastic bag without it snapping.

So here we are… India smiling politely at the geopolitical dinner table, hoping the small talk holds and nobody flips the tablecloth. If Trump and Putin shake hands, Delhi keeps cashing in on cheap crude without a care. If they don’t? Cue the “It was at this moment he knew he f’ed up” meme… because that sanctions hammer isn’t just here to bruise, it’s here to break bone.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Netflix as mentioned in the article.