Well, today was a bit of a dud. The market opened, glanced at the calendar, and collectively went, “F*** it, let’s just wait for tomorrow.” I mean it kinda makes sense… with CPI dropping Tuesday and PPI following on Thursday, traders have no appetite for big moves… not when Jerome Powell’s next decision is hanging on two data points (that seem to always disappoint). You know the drill by now. A cool reading and September’s rate-cut odds stay alive. A hot one and that 87% probability gets tossed in the shredder. Waiting for tomorrow’s CPI like:

That “sit tight” mindset played out in the scoreboard… the S&P 500 dipped 0.1%, the Dow slid 0.4%, and the Nasdaq shaved off 0.1%. Not exactly panic selling, more like the market holding its breath and pretending everything’s fine. Now all roads lead to tomorrow’s CPI, with economists calling for a +0.2% month-over-month gain (+2.8% year-over-year) and Core CPI at +0.3% (+3.1% year-over-year). Both would come in hotter than June, which in Fed-speak translates to “not a disaster, but don’t you dare start celebrating.” The monkey on Powell’s back is still that 2% inflation target, forever “almost here” like Tesla’s full self-driving… hyped every few months, but somehow never making it past Elon’s wet dreams.

And just when the market was halfway through doomscrolling TikTok, Trump strolls in like the kid in class who reminds the teacher they forgot to assign homework. With hours left, he kicked the China tariff can another 90 days down the road… thrilling. Then he yanked gold off the tariff list, and futures faceplanted 2.5% like a meme stock after a Hindenburg hit piece. How the turntables… from all-time highs on Friday to gold being Bitcoin’s awkward little brother again by Monday.

But because this is 2025 and we can’t go a day without a viral story coming out of the White House, Trump went full Mr. Wonderful on Nvidia and AMD: “Keep selling your old AI chips to China… but Daddy’s getting a 15% cut of every sale.” The latest and greatest Blackwell chips? Yeah they’re still banned. But the message is pretty clear: Washington’s fine with Beijing getting a three-year-old iPhone, just not the new model.

As for the biggest loser of the day, Hershey melted down 5% after cocoa prices spiked 10% to $8,823, their highest since early July. At this pace, fun-size candy bars are headed for the luxury goods aisle. Ford tried to balance that with a bit of optimism (read: delusion), announcing a $2 billion expansion at its Louisville plant to roll out cheaper EVs, part of a $5 billion push that also includes its Michigan battery park. They say it will create or secure around 4,000 jobs… which sounds nice, but the real test will be whether anyone wants a “budget” EV (or if Ford’s EV division can actually make a profit for once).

Over in cannabis land, stocks got lit (literally and figuratively) after Trump hinted at moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. Tilray popped 23%, Canopy Growth jumped 19%, and Cronos rallied 11%. Translation: legal banking, more Wall Street cash, and the end of the current “stoner swap meet” distribution system. And because crypto refuses to miss an attention grab, Peter Thiel-backed Bullish bumped its IPO target to $990 million at a $5 billion valuation. Former NYSE president Tom Farley is at the helm, because apparently “decentralized” now means “run by the most centralized guys possible.”

And that’s how the day fizzled out… not with a bang, but with the market sitting in the corner like it’s waiting for test results from Dr. Powell. Tomorrow’s CPI is the whole game. A chill print, and the rate-cut kegger rolls into the weekend. A hot print, and Powell’s showing up like an angry landlord… shutting off the power, kicking everyone out, and keeping your security deposit just because he can.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.