Thursday started like a Ted Lasso pep talk (full of belief and baked goods) and ended like the last 10 minutes of a frat house party: someone’s crying, someone’s fighting, and the cops might be on their way.

The Dow rolled out of bed like it had an espresso IV drip… blasting 300+ points before most people even opened their laptops. The S&P 500 joined the party, dancing through the office like it just got vacation days approved. And the Nasdaq? It was straight-up vibing… windows down, sunglasses on, blasting its favorite hype song on the way to work.

So what sparked the morning mood? Trump lobbed a 100% tariff surprise on imported chips… but handed domestic players a get-out-of-jail-free card. Basically, a Wall Street version of “you’re not that guy, pal.” Unless you’re building in the US… then yeah, you’re absolutely that guy.

Then Tim Cook (aka Tim Apple) showed up with another $100B “America First” investment, and chip stocks started dancing like they just got invited to Mars with Elon. AMD shot up 5%, Nvidia gave a subtle nod like De Niro in Goodfellas, and traders started booking fall trips to Jackson Hole like it was a reward for surviving Q2.

But then… the fine print dropped. And reality hit harder than Mike Tyson in the 90s. Turns out that whole “tariffs are good for the economy” thing stops being cute when you realize they apply to nearly 200 countries, across industries, and aren’t just targeting chips. Imports now face duties ranging from 10% to 100%, and the effective tariff rate is jumping to 18.6%... the highest since 1933. (Yes, when Herbert Hoover was gaslighting everyone about the Great Depression.)

By the end of the day, the Dow lost 309 points (-0.7%), the S&P 500 gave back its morning glow-up and slid 0.4%, and the Nasdaq tripped just enough to ruin every tech bros mood (-0.2%). From “we’re so back” to “chat, we’re cooked” in six hours flat. Caterpillar was the first to catch hands, dropping 2% after reminding everyone that tariffs aren’t great for companies that build, well… literally anything. Salesforce also ate dirt after Fortinet told everyone its product refresh cycle was less “iOS 18” and more “Windows Vista energy.”

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly showed us why biotech is just roulette with a lab coat. It posted decent earnings… but also dropped 14% after its oral obesity pill flopped in trials. (Wall Street was expecting another Ozempic. They got Flintstone gummies.)

And just when you thought the circus was over, Crocs tore off its foam straps and swan-dived off the top rope. The company pulled its full-year guidance and basically said, “No idea what’s coming, good luck!” Investors responded the only way they know how… by rage selling the stock 25% into oblivion. Its worst day since 2016. (Pour one out for Post Malone.)

Over in auto-land, Toyota dropped $9.5 billion from its profit forecast, citing (you guessed it) tariffs. I guess assembling millions of cars a year gets a little tricky when half your parts are coming from countries now being financially piledrived.

Then, presumably to put the market fire out, Bloomberg said Fed Governor Christopher Waller is the new favorite to replace Powell. Waller's already dissented in favor of rate cuts… aka, he's that one guy at the party yelling “let’s do shots” when everyone else is ordering Ubers.

And yeah… crypto’s back in the group chat. Bitcoin climbed 2%, Ether and XRP tagged along, and Coinbase popped after rumors Trump might let crypto slip into 401(k)s. (Imagine explaining to HR that your retirement plan now includes magic internet coins and anime NFTs.) And yet… somehow… the S&P 500 is still up 1.4% on the week. Because of course it is.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.