We all know how this drill goes by now. Tesla dropped a disappointing earnings report, investors braced for impact, and then (like clockwork) Elon Musk hops on the earnings call and starts slinging hype like he’s running a late night infomercial. And last night was no different. The earnings were weak, the deliveries were down, and revenue missed estimates. But forget all that… Elon swears Tesla is about to “blow everyone’s minds” in 2025. Which is about as convincing as your broke friend telling you he’s “one trade away” from making it big in crypto.

Let’s get this out of the way. Earnings per share came in at $0.73, slightly below the $0.75 Wall Street expected. Revenue was $25.71 billion, missing the $27.22 billion estimate. Operating income was down 23% year-over-year (no matter what SuperTeslaFan69 on reddit says, that’s bad). Car deliveries for Q4 were 495,570, marking Tesla’s first annual decline ever. Auto revenue dropped 8% from last year. And just to sprinkle some extra hopium on top, Tesla’s net income was magically somewhat saved by a $600 million accounting rule change on Bitcoin holdings. Because that’s totally a sustainable business model, right?

Musk knows how to handle an underwhelming earnings report. Instead of addressing Tesla’s declining margins, he did what any great hype man would do… look to the future. He hyped up the Cybercab, a self-driving robotaxi that’s supposedly coming in 2026, even though Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is still struggling with basic stop signs. He promised new, more affordable models in 2025, which would be fantastic if they actually existed yet. And, of course, he confidently declared that 2025 will be a “pivotal year for Tesla.” How? Who knows. But it sure sounds good.

After the call, I logged onto Twitter… and saw exactly what I expected: some of the most impressive mental gymnastics in financial history. Even for Tesla superfans, the cope was off the charts. One guy declared that Elon will be the world’s first trillionaire by the end of 2026. Another said he was selling all of his holdings and going all in on Tesla, dropping a casual “f the haters” for extra emphasis. And my personal favorite, the classic Amazon comparison: “People doubted Amazon in 2002. Look at them now.” Bro, people also thought WeWork was the future of real estate.

For years, Tesla had the electric vehicle market in a chokehold. But now? China’s BYD is out here spanking Tesla’s booty, overtaking them in EV sales at the end of 2023 before Tesla barely clawed back the top spot in 2024. And let’s not forget that EV demand isn’t looking great overall. European subsidies are drying up, and Tesla’s registrations in that market dropped 24% in October. While Musk is hoping that Fed rate cuts will breathe life back into demand, let’s be realistic (I know it’s hard)... a lot of people just aren’t as excited about dropping $80,000 on a Cybertruck that looks like something a 10-year-old designed in Minecraft (especially now that J Powell has paused interest rate cuts).

Despite all of this, Tesla’s stock has doubled in the past year. Why? Some of it is Musk’s close ties to the Trump administration, with investors betting on favorable policies. Some of it is just pure, unfiltered hopium. The market wants to believe that Tesla will keep dominating, that robotaxis are imminent, and that margins will magically improve. And hey… maybe 2025 will be Tesla’s year. But if history tells us anything, we’ll probably be having this exact same conversation after the next earnings call.

Look, I’m not saying Tesla is doomed. But when the only way your stock goes up after an earnings report is because of vague promises and Twitter cope, maybe (just maybe) it’s time to step back and ask… Is Tesla really about to blow everyone’s minds? Or is Elon just blowing more smoke?

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Stock.News has positions in Tesla and Amazon.