That sound you heard was Teflon Don making oil his b*tch… 

OPEC+ just did that thing where they “boost production” but not enough to make anyone happy. The cartel announced it’ll raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in November… a.k.a, same as last month and basically just a participation trophy for the oil heads.

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the usual suspects claim this cautious move will “stabilize markets,” but the subtext is different. Instead, what they are really trying to do is reclaim market share lost to the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana without detonating prices. Brent’s already down 13% this year, hovering between $65–$70. That’s bad news for producers but great news if you drive something that gets nine miles to the gallon and you’re still paying off your F-250.

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Meaning, OPEC’s problem is that it’s fighting the laws of physics… and capitalism. Every time they tighten supply, U.S. shale just comes back harder. Every time they flood the market, they tank their own revenue. It’s like trying to play chess against your reflection: no matter what move you make, you still lose. Additionally, this new “micro-hike” in production comes after the cartel unwound 3.85 million barrels per day in earlier cuts, with 1.65 million of that just this year. It’s a slow walk back to normal production levels, except “normal” now means “don’t piss off Trump.” Because, yes, Trump’s been very vocal about wanting lower gas prices… and right now, OPEC just handed him a win without him having to tweet about it.

On the analyst side, they are less than impressed. JPMorgan’s modeling a surplus of two million barrels a day heading into 2026, and the IEA keeps lifting its supply forecasts. Translation: oil producers are turning the spigot while demand plateaus, and the only thing keeping prices from collapsing is Chinese stockpiling and geopolitical chaos. With that said, the cartel meets again in November (we’ll see how bad it gets by then). 

(Source: Giphy) 

So yeah… 137,000 barrels doesn’t sound like much. But it’s the canary in the rig. The cartel’s betting it can walk the tightrope between overproduction and political appeasement one cautious barrel at a time. History says otherwise… but for now, they’re still pretending the pipes aren’t already full.

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.