If you blinked, you probably missed it, but BigBear.ai ($BBAI) went nuclear this past week, surging 102.59% after securing a fat contract from the Department of Defense. That’s right friends, the government decided it was about high time to throw some more taxpayer dollars at another AI-powered surveillance tool. If you’re wondering whether the Pentagon has learned anything from the last few decades of bloated defense contracts and tech grift, the answer is a resounding no, but hey—at least BigBear’s shareholders are eating well.

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, BigBear landed the contract to develop something called the Virtual Anticipation Network (or VANE for short) for the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office. And if that sounds like a weird fever dream cooked up by DARPA interns who’ve watched Minority Report one too many times, that’s because it is. The whole point of VANE is to use custom AI models to “assess” foreign news—translation: scrape the internet, filter it through a black box of algorithmic nonsense, and spit out whatever narrative the DoD wants to attack next. 

Or in layman's terms, it’s simply designed to help the military figure out who’s up to what before things get messy. Of course, the real fun part is that VANE was already “awardable” under the DoD’s Tradewinds framework back in April 2024. That means this contract isn’t some random, one-off deal—it’s likely the first step toward full-scale deployment across the U.S. military. In other words, this could be a long-term money printer for BigBear, assuming they don’t fumble the execution.

(Source: StockTwits) 

The result of the news exploded shares to a 32-month high, and if you didn’t see this coming, don’t worry—neither did most of Wall Street. But given that the market has been foaming at the mouth for anything AI-adjacent, and you mix in a national security narrative, this rally practically writes itself.

What’s more is that BigBear also locked in a U.S. Navy deal the week before, which means they’re stacking government contracts like poker chips. And retail traders? They’re eating this up. Stocktwits saw a massive spike in activity, because nothing gets the degenerate Robinhood crowd more excited than a low-float AI stock with a thicc and juicy DoD contract. 

(Source: Giphy) 

But, but, but… here’s where things get interesting—BigBear isn’t even profitable. I know, crazy—but apparently that doesn’t matter right now. If we’ve learned anything from the AI boom, it’s that profitability is for losers. Especially when the playbook here is stupidly simple: slap “AI” on your deck, attach yourself to the Pentagon’s bottomless budget, and keep the hype train rolling until either retail traders run out of cash or the government realizes they’ve been sold another glorified spreadsheet.

For more context, BigBear.ai has a market cap of $1.24 billion and $155 million in annual revenue. Not terrible, but also not exactly justifying this kind of run. They recently restructured $182.3 million in convertible senior notes, kicking the debt can down the road until 2029—which is great if they can keep securing contracts, but a massive red flag if the hype dies down before the cash flow actually materializes.

(Source: Investing.com) 

On the other hand, analysts (due to its lack of profitability) already think this thing is overvalued—given the stock is up 364% over the past 12 months. The bears case is that this thing is running purely on hype right now. BigBear isn’t profitable, it’s burning cash, and it’s riding a retail-fueled AI euphoria that could come crashing down the second the DoD decides to tighten the purse strings.

Meanwhile the bulls case is obvious: BigBear.ai is embedding itself into the national security AI-industrial complex. If they keep locking in defense contracts, this stock could have serious long-term upside. If the DoD eventually moves VANE from “prototype” to full deployment, this could turn into the next Palantir.

(Source: Giphy) 

For now, it’s all just a waiting game to see which side is right. Sure, it’s a high-risk, high reward stock who has already seen explosive momentum—but if BigBear actually cements itself as a cornerstone of U.S. military AI, the sky is the limit for the shareholders holding this thing. 

In the meantime, keep your eyes on BigBear.ai as we resume Mondays trading, and watch out for the price action. I’m sure it’s going to be volatile as hell—so place your bets accordingly. As always, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time… 

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Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article