The Final Tally: Hidden Valentine’s Day Pattern Has a 93.8% Success Rate?

Intel just had its best week since Y2K, jumping 23%, and all it took was VP JD Vance hopping on a stage in Paris (the perfect setting for a good fairy tale) and promising that AI will be Made in America.

Investors went absolutely full patriotic, sending Intel stock flying, probably envisioning a future where ChatGPT salutes the flag before answering a question. Of course, it also helps that rumors are swirling about a potential TSMC partnership, which could be huge for domestic chip manufacturing (or just another case of the market getting ahead of itself).

Valentine’s Day

Speaking of gains, the S&P 500 inched up 0.1% on Friday, still thirsting for new record highs like a degenerate gambler chasing one last bet. The Nasdaq gained 0.3%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly, giving back some of its Thursday rally. 

Wall Street Institutions are still digesting January’s 0.8% drop in retail sales, the worst in a year (apparently, people stopped spending money after their credit card bills came due… who knew?). Inflation data earlier in the week also came in hot, which means Jerome Powell won’t be slashing rates anytime soon (sorry, stock market, but Daddy Jerome isn’t turning the money printer back on just yet).

Valentine’s Day

According to Oppenheimer, when the S&P 500 gains at least 3% by Feb. 14, it keeps climbing for the rest of the year 93.8% of the time, with an average return of 13.7%. Not sure if I would throw all of my money into the market at all time highs at once over one historical stat, but it’s worth mentioning.

Airbnb was one of today’s biggest stories, soaring 15% after crushing earnings and declaring itself the “Amazon of travel” (which is an interesting comparison considering Amazon actually sells things people need, while Airbnb just finds new ways to charge you for using towels). CEO Brian Chesky wants Airbnb to expand beyond just vacation rentals, planning to dump $200M–$250M into new projects over the next few years. In other words, they’re making too much money and need to burn some of it before Wall Street gets suspicious.

Valentine’s Day

Dell also had a great day, climbing 3% after reports that Elon Musk’s xAI is buying Nvidia-powered servers from them. Because, of course, Musk needs to have his hands in every AI project possible… he’s basically the stock market’s version of that one guy who keeps joining MLMs but swears this time is different.

Valentine’s Day

Speaking of Nvidia, they revealed a $57M stake in WeRide, a Chinese autonomous driving firm, and the news sent WeRide stock up 98% before reality set in and it crashed back to “only” an 80% gain.

The big boys had a field day as well. Apple led the "Magnificent Seven", climbing 7%, while Meta hit an all-time high, posting a 3% gain for the week.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

Valentine’s Day