It’s earnings season, and Q1 of Trump’s first year back in office isn’t exactly rolling out the red carpet for the airline industry (unless you’re flying Bitcoin Air or GoldJet, in which case… congrats).

While crypto bros meme themselves into $90K heaven and gold bugs finally get to say “I told you so” for the 40th straight year, the airlines are quietly getting hammered by something far less exciting: macroeconomic reality. Not a demand collapse, not a fuel shock… just the uncomfortable realization that it’s nearly impossible to issue guidance when the global economy feels like it’s being driven by someone who just found the gas pedal.

Delta, Southwest, and American Airlines all posted Q1 results. On paper it was beats across the board. In reality, they shredded 2025 guidance so fast you'd think Wall Street asked them to forecast the weather two years out.

Delta started 2025 like an overconfident college freshman… CEO Ed Bastian literally told investors to get ready for “the best financial year in our history.” Then February happened. Trump’s trade policies, featuring tariffs on imports from China, Europe, and basically anyone who sells us stuff, kicked in hard. Confidence in corporate travel dried up like a prune, and by April, Delta quietly pulled its full-year forecast… just one month after doubling down on it.

Q1 looked fine on the surface… Delta pulled in $240 million in net income, beat EPS expectations with $0.46 vs. $0.38, and brought in $12.98 billion in revenue. But behind the scenes, things were already slipping. The airline quietly deleted plans to expand capacity in the second half of the year as domestic bookings started softening. 

And while premium international travel is still holding up, things in the main cabin aren’t so hot. It’s starting to resemble a Spirit Airlines gate after midnight… thin crowds, low spend, and nobody making eye contact. Even CEO Ed Bastian, once a fan of Trump’s economic policies, now says the tariffs are “the wrong approach” (I guess he’s not a fan anymore). If Delta was the optimist, Southwest is the realist… and the realism ain’t pretty.

Q1 came in with a $149 million loss. That’s technically less bad than last year’s $231 million black eye, and they did beat revenue estimates slightly ($6.43B vs. $6.40B expected). But those are the kind of wins you brag about when you’re losing the war.

The bigger story is what comes next: unit revenue could fall as much as 4% in Q2, and Southwest just yanked its EBIT outlook for both 2025 and 2026. That’s a two-year window of "please stop asking us what comes next." Of course, the panic comes from macroeconomic uncertainty. Or in plain English: we don’t know what the hell is happening with consumer demand anymore. Booking patterns are short-lived and increasingly last-minute, and the once-loyal budget flyer is now a ghost.

To numb the pain, Southwest is blowing up its long-held identity. No more free bags. Assigned seating and basic economy are coming. Expedia listings, too. Turns out activist investor Elliott Management didn’t buy in to collect Rapid Rewards points… they want margins.

Then there’s American, which somehow managed to post the worst results of the bunch… a $473 million loss on $12.55 billion in revenue. That’s almost half a billion dollars in red ink… in one quarter. And unlike Delta or Southwest, American has a cost problem. New labor contracts signed last year are starting to eat into margins, and without a clear growth runway, it's looking rough.

Worse, American pulled its prior forecast of $1.70 to $2.70 in adjusted EPS for the year. It now joins the rest of the Big Three in the “don’t ask us about 2025” club.

PS: The headlines are full of panic… inflation’s too high, the Fed’s asleep at the wheel, and Trump never fails to kill any market momentum with more tariffs. On the surface, it looks like the market’s barely breathing.

But underneath all that noise?

We’re seeing some of the fastest stock moves in years… especially in the small-cap space, where low float and high tension can trigger a 100% pop before lunch. Some are up 200% in under 24 hours… and nobody on CNBC is talking about them.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.