Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, as the expiration of U.S. tax credits and intensifying global competition pressure demand despite the launch of lower-priced vehicle variants.

Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect Tesla to deliver approximately 432,810 vehicles in the fourth quarter, representing a 13% decline year over year. A separate consensus of 20 analysts compiled by the company forecasts an even steeper 15% drop to 422,850 vehicles.

Tesla is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year production and delivery figures on Friday.For the full year, Tesla’s deliveries are projected to fall 7.8% year over year to about 1.65 million vehicles, according to the Visible Alpha poll. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive annual decline, with the drop steeper than last year’s decrease. The anticipated slowdown follows weak sales in the first half of the year, when demand was hit by the loss of U.S. federal EV tax incentives and backlash surrounding political commentary from Chief Executive Elon Musk. Third-quarter deliveries rebounded as buyers rushed to secure tax credits before they expired in September.

Analysts expect the decline to be driven primarily by North American and European markets, where competition from both legacy automakers and lower-priced Chinese electric vehicles has intensified.

In October, Tesla introduced “Standard” versions of its Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, priced roughly $5,000 below previous base models, in an effort to protect volumes. Analysts believe these lower-cost variants could help stabilize demand in Europe and Asia in 2026, particularly as rival offerings from Ford and General Motors’ Chevrolet brand enter the affordable EV segment over the next two years.

Despite the delivery slowdown, Tesla’s stock has climbed more than 14% this year, supported by investor optimism around Musk’s strategic pivot toward robotaxis, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving technology. A recent court ruling cleared the way for Musk to reclaim a previously voided Tesla compensation package, and shareholders approved a new long-term pay plan in November that could be worth up to $878 billion over the next decade, contingent on aggressive growth milestones.

Delivering 20 million vehicles annually is one of the key performance targets tied to that compensation plan, alongside goals related to autonomous vehicle deployment and robotics expansion.

About Tesla

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, energy generation systems, and energy storage products. The company operates globally with production facilities in the United States, China, and Europe, and is focused on advancing electric mobility, autonomous driving technology, and artificial intelligence-driven robotics.