SMCI Investors be like: “Oh no, we suck again…” 

There’s a special kind of silence that hits a room when the high-flying kid finally trips over his shoelaces… and for Super Micro investors, that silence came with a -15% after-hours (-18% today) slap to the face. 

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In short, Super Micro decided to reintroduce itself to reality yesterday. And reality, it turns out, doesn’t care how many Nvidia logos you slap on a box if your earnings suck and your guidance sounds like it was written by a Pat Gelsinger. For instance, the company reported adjusted earnings of 41 cents a share vs. the 44 cents analysts expected. Revenue came in at $5.76 billion, a smidge below the $5.89 billion forecast, but enough to trigger a 15% drop when you're trading at nosebleed multiples and your entire investor base is high on GPU fumes.

(Source: CNBC) 

The “good” news though is that revenue still grew 7.5% YoY. But net income cratered to $195 million from $297 million, thanks in part to the Trump tariff hammer swinging through their cost structure like a friggin’ wrecking ball. CEO Charles Liang tried to massage it: “Although we have taken measures to reduce the impact…” which really just means they’ve taped a napkin to the hole in the boat. Whereas, he followed it up with the real gut punch… guidance. For Q1, Super Micro expects EPS of 40 to 52 cents on revenue between $6 billion and $7 billion. Street consensus was 59 cents and $6.6 billion. So even the high end of their flex sounds like a disappointed sigh. The kind of range you give when you're not sure if your biggest customer is ghosting you or just out of office.

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Oh, and keep in mind, this is still the same company that ghosted their own earnings for half a year. They only dropped their 2024 reports in early 2025, after the Nasdaq told them to either file or find a new hobby. Their auditor dipped mid-year ended up dipping out to go get some milk. Spoiler: He never came back. Still, the 2026 forecast is where things get spicy: at least $33 billion in revenue, above the Street’s $29.9 billion estimate. So, naturally, retail bagholders will desperately cling to this number, completely forgetting they were just told Q1’s about to suck. 

But alas, this is just another example of Super Micro, having its Cinderella run fueled by Nvidia’s bull market, some creative storytelling, and the market’s rabid need for “pure play” AI names. That combo will make you rich… until the music stops and someone checks the actual margins.

(Source: Giphy) 

And yet, even after the bloodbath, SMCI is still up +54.69% YTD. Which means, a whole lot of folks are still sitting on gains… gains that may start looking mighty tasty to take if next quarter continues this little "growth deceleration" theme. In the end, the party’s not over, but the lights just flickered. And if Super Micro doesn’t get its act together, the market’s about to remember what happens when you skip earnings for six months and show up late with a cold meat tray. Meaning, keep your head on the swivel with this one… and place your bets accordingly. Until next time, friends…

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.