When the Starbucks board inked Brian Niccol to that supermax NBA-style contract, they probably thought he’d just sprinkle some Chipotle fairy dust on their Frappuccinos and boom… “we are so back.” Instead, 18 months later, he’s still scrubbed up like a surgeon who’s on his 10th operation of the week, scalpel in hand, swearing to everyone in the waiting room, “Don’t worry, this time it’s really going to work.”

Problem is, the patient’s looking pale. And if the vitals don’t improve soon, Niccol might be the one wheeled out next. Anyways, this morning, Starbucks announced it’s going to spend $1 billion ripping out the weak parts of its business… closing coffee shops, cutting jobs, and basically telling Wall Street, “fine, you want blood? Here’s a f***ing bloodbath.” Hardly surprising when the stock’s already down 8% this year and Dutch Bros is out here colonizing caffeine territory one drive-thru at a time like a modern day Alexander the Great.

To specify, Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” plan means about 1% fewer stores in North America by 2025 (after balancing closures and openings) and 900 fewer employees… on top of the 1,100 corporate layoffs he already greenlit earlier this year. That’s two rounds of pink slips in less than 12 months. Not exactly the Gilmore Girls nostalgia investors were hoping for when they gave him $96 million.

In the announcement, the company told the SEC that 90% of the restructuring bill will smack North America directly. Meaning: US baristas might still be steaming milk, but corporate support teams are about to find out what “right-sizing” really means.

To make matters worse, sales have been sputtering in Starbucks’ biggest market. So Niccol came up with a genius mantra he coined “closer to the customer.” Which in practice means: shut down the underperformers, double down on the cafes that still feel like coffeehouses (instead of airport terminals), and dump resources into things that keep people coming back… like shorter wait times and, allegedly, ceramic mugs (jury’s still out on that one).

(Source: Business Insider)

Being the expert gaslighter he is, Niccol went full “just trust me, bro” in his memo:

“I believe these steps are necessary to build a better, stronger, and more resilient Starbucks.”

In other words: if your local store’s drive-thru isn’t backed up like an ER waiting room and the only “loyal customer” is some dude nursing a $3 refill while chain-charging his vape pen, you better get used to the taste of Dunkin.

Let’s give him a little credit… because in between swinging the axe like Paul Bunyan, Niccol is at least trying to sprinkle some sugar on the medicine. Back in July, he promised $500M for labor hours through something called “Green Apron Service” (because spending half a billion on nicer aprons is definitely the problem). He’s also swapped in some Chipotle cronies for the C-suite and forced a four-day in-office mandate. I know he’s got to try everything but I don’t think analysts over at Morgan Stanley are gonna upgrade their price target because you’re forcing accountants back into rush-hour traffic.

I think it’s pretty safe to say Starbucks is going for the ultimate brand rehab…still try to convince investors they’re building the “world’s greatest customer-centric company.” But one look at the stock chart tells you everything you need to know about whether anyone’s buying that spin.

And to be fair, this isn’t all on Brian. The mess was baked in from the start. It reminds me of my Titans drafting Cam Ward… sure, you can hype up the new quarterback and pretend it fixes everything, but if the organization is a dumpster fire from top to bottom, nothing changes until you clean that up. That’s the hole Niccol’s in. He’s trying to patch a broken system, but I don’t think anyone realized just how long this surgery was going to take.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Starbucks as mentioned in the article.