Who amongst us hasn’t paid extra for a few more pumps?

Every guy reading this: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sooo apparently, America is back on its pumpkin spice bullsh*t. Starbucks says its fall menu rollout was its strongest autumn launch day ever, and Burrito Brian’s (read: CEO Brian Niccol’s) turnaround is still in full swing. U.S. same-store sales jumped 7.7% in fiscal Q4, ahead of the 6.5% Wall Street expected. Bigly. 

The Dunkin for people who think they’re better than you beat on the bottom line and whiffed on the top. Adjusted earnings came in at 80 cents a share vs. the 72 cents analysts wanted, while revenue of $9.14B missed estimates of $9.23B. Net revenue fell 4%, mostly because Starbucks no longer counts its China stores as its own. Shares closed up 2% Thursday, then gave most of it back after hours. Cowards.

As for the big swinging’ U.S. number… transactions rose just 2.4%, while the average ticket jumped 5.2%. Meaning, Bry Guy is Niccol-and-diming his way back to the promised land, one extra pump at a time. And Starbucks says next year’s growth will lean even more on ticket than traffic.

Per Brian, “Starbucks brand affinity is at near record levels as our menu innovation, marketing and merchandise continue to create moments that drive culture.” Translation: grown adults are still fighting over cups. Matcha, meanwhile, is now a $1B drink. Starbucks also finished 1,700+ cafe “uplifts” (think: more seats, softer lighting), which it says bring in more transactions.

As for the rest of the world, it’s still riding the struggle bus. International comps rose a measly 0.9% vs. the 3.2% analysts expected, as transactions fell 2.8%. Starbucks’ fix? Pull an Uber (read: sell the overseas business to the locals, keep a stake). It sold 60% of its China business to Boyu Capital this spring, handed most of its other international cafes to licensed partners, and is reportedly putting a majority stake in its Japan business on the clearance rack.

For fiscal 2027, Starbucks is calling for adjusted EPS of $3.15 to $3.25, a hair above the Street’s $3.14. Revenue is expected to shrink 1% (analysts wanted 1.4% growth) despite a whole extra 53rd week on the calendar, which, how? Blame the China deal, fewer new North American cafes, and slightly lower coffee prices (read: the beans, not your latte). Still, Brian says Starbucks is ahead of schedule on its fiscal 2028 targets. Sounds legit.

Oh, and Brian’s ex, Chipotle (he ran it until 2024), reported the day before. Same-store sales rose 2.1%. Friendly reminder, earlier this month, Starbucks had to publicly clarify that it’s “not buying Chipotle” after a report said Brian was working on a takeover.

Brian swears it’s over. Sure, bro… that’s what everyone says about their sneaky link. Until next time, friends…

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News holds positions in Starbucks as mentioned in the article.