Moderna thought they were getting a romantic Valentine's Day filled with flowers and a sushi dinner, but instead, they got their heart broken. That dang COVID vaccine revenue loss just won’t quit haunting them. The stock is down 62% over the last year… and in 2025 alone, it's already down 24%. You just know the Moderna execs are praying for another pandemic like a washed-up actor in Hollywood praying for a reboot. And as if things weren’t bad enough, RFK Jr. is coming for them with a vengeance. Yeah, they’re in trouble.

Since it’s Valentine’s Day, I’m kind of forced to use this reference. Moderna’s fourth-quarter earnings report was a little like a bad breakup… some positives, but mostly regret and second-guessing. The company somehow managed to beat revenue expectations with $966 million in Q4 sales, but here’s the problem: That’s down 66% from the $2.8 billion it made in the same quarter last year.

And the hits keep coming. The company reported a net loss of $1.12 billion, or -$2.91 per share, which was even worse than analysts' already low expectations (-$2.68 per share). In comparison, a year ago, Moderna was actually profitable, pulling in $217 million in net income. Yeah, the covid money train is officially gone.

Moderna is in full-blown damage control mode, cutting costs wherever it can. The company says it reduced expenses by 27% in 2024 compared to 2023 and plans to chop off another $1 billion in costs by the end of 2025. When your business is struggling so badly that “saving a billion dollars” is just step one of your recovery plan, you know things are bad.

And let’s talk guidance… because nothing tells shareholders “things are totally fine” like repeatedly cutting revenue projections. Moderna is now expecting $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in total product sales for 2025, down roughly $1 billion from its previous guidance. It just keeps getting worse.

If a collapsing COVID vaccine business wasn’t enough, Moderna also has to deal with its newest headache: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. If you’ve somehow missed it, RFK Jr. is now in charge of the Department of Health and Human Services… the same RFK Jr. who has spent years railing against vaccines and drugmakers for taking advantage of the American people and making deals with corrupt politicians.

Investors haven’t totally freaked out yet (Moderna’s stock didn’t move much after RFK’s confirmation), but let’s be real… having an outspoken vaccine critic at the helm of HHS isn’t exactly great for a company that only makes vaccines. Wall Street analysts are already speculating about what this means for Moderna’s future, and let’s just say they’re not getting warm and bubbly feelings about it.

Moderna knows the easy covid money is over, so it’s trying to beef up its pipeline (ironically with more covid shots). The company has 10 new product approvals in the works through 2027, including a next-gen COVID shot, a COVID-flu combo vaccine, and an RSV vaccine for high-risk adults. But we all know none of those are likely to recapture the pandemic-era gold rush.

Investors will need to see real results before buying into Moderna’s comeback story. With shares already down nearly 94% from their pandemic peak of almost $500, it’s clear institutional money isn’t exactly betting big on a turnaround just yet (even Cathie Wood, who is probably the most pie in the sky investor alive, recently dumped over $9 million of the stock).

For now, Moderna investors are stuck playing defense, hoping RFK Jr. doesn’t throw a wrench into their already crumbling business model.

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Stock.News has positions in Moderna.