Live look at every real estate agent after the orange apron’s investor call:

Well, Home Depot dropped its preliminary forecast for 2025, and let’s just say if you have your house up for sale… I hope your soul is prepared for the “holy lowball” offers you’re about to get.

Here’s the headline: 

Comparable sales: flat to +2%.

Wall Street: “Uh… that’s it?”

Home Depot (channeling it’s inner Jeb Bush): “Yes. Please clap.”

The whole thing reads like a company pre-apologizing for existing. And honestly, who can blame them? The US housing market is frozen… prices are too high, interest rates are too high, and despite what the White House will tell you… the average American is practically eating Chef Boyardee by candlelight.

Sure, mortgage rates technically came down from the psycho levels we saw last year, but they’re still chilling in the “yeah, we’re not going anywhere” range. And shockingly, if people can’t move, they also aren’t dropping five figures on new decks, granite countertops, or that $900 smart fridge that plays Spotify for some reason.

Translation: if you’ve been procrastinating your home improvement projects, congratulations… you’re now part of Home Depot’s earnings call.

(Source: TipRanks)

But that didn’t stop Home Depot from pulling a “Choose Your Own Adventure” scenario… High on their own supply of copium, HD also offered a “market recovery” case, essentially saying: “If housing magically fixes itself and everyone feels rich again, we could grow comps 4% to 5% next year.”

This is the equivalent of Jack Black telling his trainer, “If I eat clean and run five miles every morning, I might get abs.” Like, yes… technically possible. But also… let’s be serious.

CFO Richard McPhail tried his best to inject some pep into the gloom: “We believe housing pressures will correct and support growth faster than the general economy.”

Love the confidence, Rich. But the housing market right now looks like the final scene in Titanic. The general economy may actually be Rose in this analogy… letting housing sink to the bottom of the Atlantic while hogging the door.

To make matters worse, Home Depot’s stock is also not feeling it…

The company that used to be the strong, dependable, dividend king stock is no down 9% this year compared to the S&P being up 16%.

Why? Because last quarter’s “rebound in demand”... the one everyone was praying for? Did not happen.

Ted Decker tried to keep a straight face while explaining it: “Consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.” AKA: “People are broke, scared, and refusing to replace anything unless it’s literally on fire.”

Also, there’ve been fewer big storms. Lovely for humanity, terrible for anyone whose best sales days happen when the Weather Channel starts yelling. 

Oh and Just when Home Depot thought the housing slowdown was enough punishment, Donnie Tariffhands said: “Hold my Filet-O-Fish.”

Nearly half of Home Depot’s inventory comes from overseas suppliers.Tariffs crank up those import costs. Import costs crank up shelf prices. Shelf prices crank up consumer panic. Consumer panic kills home improvement spending.

It’s like inflation… but with extra steps.

So why is this all so important?

Home Depot is one of those companies that accidentally reveals the real state of America. If HD is thriving? The country is thriving. If HD is coughing up warning signals? The economy is whispering “uh oh…”

And right now, things aren’t great Bob.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Spotify as mentioned in the article.