“Who knows, might fck around and hike 50.” - Chris Waller, basically 

Bad news for the poors anyone who hasn’t opted out of capitalism. 

The straight-up, missionary Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The nerds were looking for 0.3%.

“F’ food and energy, all my homies hate food and energy.” Didn’t help much, though. Core CPI (read: everything minus food and energy) rose 0.3% vs. the 0.2% expected, which, not great, Bob.

As for the annual number? Fugayzi, fugazi. It doesn’t exist. Friendly reminder, last year’s government shutdown shuttered the BLS, so nobody was around to collect October 2025 prices. No year-ago number means no 12-month rate. Economists are guesstimating it’s around 4% anyway (Bank of America says 3.8%). Quick math: that’s still nearly double the Fed’s 2% target…

Shelter, of course, did the most damage. It rose 0.3% and accounted for over 30% of the monthly increase, which tracks considering housing makes up ~1/3 of CPI’s weighting. Car insurance jumped 0.7%, and hospital services climbed 0.8%. Groceries rose 0.4% and eating out jumped 0.5%, so that $37 slop bowl (+$9 tip) isn’t getting any cheaper.

Technically, prices at the pump fell 0.7% last month. But seasonally adjusted (read: after the BLS strips out normal October price swings), gasoline rose 1%. Fun fact: GasBuddy predicted 2026 would be the year gas averaged under $3 a gallon (swing and a miss). Instead, it’s one of the few categories the BLS still has a year-ago number for, and it’s up 37.4%. Something about a war with Iran…

On the bright side, used cars fell 1.2%. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Which brings us to K-Woww (read: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh). The Fed hiked in September for the first time since 2023, then held at 3.75%-4% in October. Even before this morning’s print, odds of another quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting were high AF (84%, per CME FedWatch). Friendlier reminder, August CPI printed the exact same 0.4%/0.3% split. We asked Kev to call that one a fluke. He hiked instead.

Also on Tuesday, in a speech in London, Fed Governor Chris Waller said a 50 bip hike “should be considered” if core CPI ran “around 0.3 percent or even higher.” Core came in at… 0.3%. Yes, the same Chris Waller who wanted to cut rates in the summer of our Lord 2025.

Oh, and the guy who hand-picked K-Woww (read: #47) told reporters back in June, “I love the inflation.” Tell us how you really feel, Donny

So yeah, December’s hike is basically in the bag. The only question is how hard Warsh wants to go (ayy). Let’s just call this one a fluke too, Kev…

Until next time, friends! 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.