Intel to Novo be like… 

It’s no secret that tech was the main card that got TKO’d yesterday. But what no one expected was the special guest that stole the show. And when I say stole the show, I mean absolutely blasted. In short, Novo said “hold my beer” as shares were nuked -15% in a single session after dropping guidance that can only be described as honest to the point of violence.

Novo is now telling the market sales and profit are going backwards this year. No slowing or moderating… but going negative. As in: less money than before. Markets responded the only way they know how… by immediately taking Novo out back. Now if you’ve been paying attention to the Intel of the weight loss industry… this wouldn’t have come at a surprise. Novo’s been bleeding confidence for a year. Stock down ~46% last year. Multiple guidance trims. Leadership musical chairs. And now the cherry on top: a forecast range so wide it looked like the waste of an average Wegovy patient. Case in point: Down 5% to 13% on sales and operating profit.

(Source: CNBC) 

For context, last year sales were up 10% and profit grew 6%. Meaning, this is a full-on momentum reversal, not a speed bump. The reasons mainly have to do with a laundry list of f*ckery including U.S. pricing pressure, competition getting real ugly, and Eli Lilly showing up like Ivan Drago all day everyday. Translation: Zepbound is eating Wegovy’s lunch. Loudly. Of course, Novo’s response is the pills. More specifically, an oral Wegovy rollout and prayers that CagriSema… the next injectable… can keep them relevant while Lilly keeps widening the gap. Hint: Why I called Novo the Intel of the weight loss industry LOL. But alas, will it keep Novo relevant? Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn’t. But the market is done waiting patiently to find out.

The real issue is the U.S. channel. That’s where the money is. That’s where prices are getting squeezed. And that’s where Novo’s losing share while Lilly keeps stacking wins. Toss in the fact that semaglutide is losing exclusivity in places like China, Brazil, and Canada, and suddenly the growth story looks… mortal.

(Source: Giphy) 

Moral of the story here? Sure, software and AI names got punched but it was the Novo investors who got absolutely rinsed. And until someone proves that pills, pricing, or pipeline can stop the bleeding in the U.S., this thing isn’t a “buy the dip”... it’s a wait until the knife stops bouncing. Place your bets accordingly, friends. Until next time… 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News holds positions in Intel as mentioned in the article.