While the U.S. and China are busy throwing economic haymakers like a geopolitical version of Jerry Springer, one Latin American company is licking its chops. That company is MercadoLibre (Ticker: MELI). They’re basically the Amazon of Latin America. And yes, it’s been quietly cooking while the rest of the world loses its damn mind.

The stock is already up 26% this year, and CEO Marcos Galperin (aka Argentina’s $8.7 billion man) thinks the U.S.-China trade war is the best thing to happen to Latin America since… well, ever. And honestly, he might not be wrong. 

Galperin recently told a reporter that the days of “China manufactures everything, the U.S. buys it, and China turns around and finances the U.S. with T-bills” are done. 

Instead, he sees a permanent shift in trade relations. And guess who’s sitting at the crossroads with a killer smile and a massive logistics network? MercadoLibre. While American companies do everything they can to de-risk their supply chains, Latin America (especially Mexico) is sliding into the DMs of global manufacturing dollars.

Free trade deals, low tariffs (thanks, President Milei), and proximity to the U.S. make Mexico the rebound girlfriend every company suddenly wants to meet their parents. And MELI is already moving in.

MELI is a company that’s transformed into a fintech/e-commerce (and advertising/logistics) monster that’s becoming borderline unfair to the competition. Their Q4 2024 revenue is up 96% to $6.1 billion. Gross profit is up over 100%. They’ve pretty much built a digital Costco meets Venmo meets Amazon Prime… but for a continent where traditional banking barely works, logistics is a nightmare, and inflation makes Monopoly money look like a stable currency.

Look, we’re bullish… but not “buy the dip with your rent money” bullish. MELI’s price-to-earnings ratio is already at 53. Investors are pricing this company like it’s going to solve world hunger and bring back The Office for another season.

And let’s not ignore the landmines: political instability and a currency risk bigger than just about any other continent in the world. Look back at history and you'll see, Latin America isn’t exactly known for its strong economy. If a finance minister cracks a rat, the peso might drop 20% overnight. And MELI, with its heavy fintech exposure, is especially sensitive to that kind of chaos.

Even with all that said, MercadoLibre’s moat is becoming the kind of fortress Jeff Bezos has wet dreams about. Logistics. Fintech. Engagement. Data. They’re already operating in 18 countries, with 67 million unique buyers and 61 million fintech users. 

Stocks.News has positions in Amazon, Costco, PayPal, and MercadoLibre.