So can we all just agree that Google is basically collecting antitrust lawsuits like they’re limited-edition trading cards? For those who just woke up, the reason I say this is because Google is officially starring in its second trial in just two months. 

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, after getting slapped with a major L in September for monopolizing the search game, Google is back in court, this time for its ad-tech empire. Yup, the Department of Justice (DoJ) isn’t done with our favorite online stalker just yet. 

(Source: Bloomberg) 

And in case you missed the first trial, spoiler: it could lead to Google’s search business getting sliced off from its Android and Chrome platforms like an awkward fifth wheel. But this new antitrust dilemma… well, it’s about all ‘dem coincidental ads you get after talking about all your needs and wants at a dinner party. (Because, you know… our phones listen to us, amirite?) 

(Source: Reddit) 

To sum up the gist of all of it, the government is coming for Google’s ad-tech dominance. The DoJ wants Google to divest its ad-tech operations, which, in 2020, raked in about $20B in revenue. That sounds impressive until you realize Google’s partners pocketed almost three-quarters of that cash in traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In other words, the ad-tech biz is like the side hustle that looks good on paper but isn’t exactly printing money. Google’s search dominance, though? That’s the real cash cow.

(Source: New York Post) 

Which is exactly why this case is such a big deal. If the government wins, Google’s iron grip on digital advertising could be pried open, creating space for competitors to sneak in. Again, this is just the latest chapter in a long saga of regulatory pressure for Big Tech. The wolves are at the door, and they’re not leaving anytime soon. 

Google’s been riding the regulatory hot seat for years, but up until recently, investors were shrugging it off. I mean, the combined market cap of tech’s Fab Five (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta) hit over $12 trillion by June. That’s a 146% jump since 2020. Who’s sweating, right?

(Source: Giphy) 

Well, now it looks like the party’s coming to an end, at least for Google. Alphabet’s stock has dropped nearly 14% since the start of the current quarter, underperforming even compared to its Big Tech buddies. Some of that’s due to market rotations and the fact that everyone and their dog is throwing money at AI investments.

 But the regulatory clouds hanging over Google are definitely not helping the matter. You see, for the first time in forever, Alphabet is trading at a discount to the S&P 500—about 19 times forward earnings. That’s basically Wall Street’s way of saying, "Ehhh we aren’t so sure about this mate.” 

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Analysts are still mostly positive but starting to hedge their bets. Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney warned of "significant uncertainty" over the next year, and Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik didn’t sugarcoat it: "It’s hard to envision Google escaping the battles unscathed."

On the other hand, while the ad-tech trial is the one making headlines right now, it’s the search case that could really shake things up for Google. Last month, a federal judge ruled that Google’s deals with companies like Apple to make its search engine the default option on mobile devices were, well, kinda shady. The DoJ wants to break up Google’s search biz by forcing it to divest from Android and Chrome. If that happens, it’s game over as we know it.

(Source: AP) 

Now I know this all sounds doom and gloom, (which it is), but surprisingly, most analysts think such extreme measures are unlikely. However, other penalties, like banning Google from paying for default search placement, are still on the table. That could open the door for rivals like Microsoft’s Bing to swoop in and steal some market share. Yes, Bing— who would’ve though? Not me, that's for sure. 

(Source: Giphy) 

So given all of this, if you’re hoping for a quick resolution, don’t hold your breath. The remedies for the search lawsuit aren’t expected to be decided until next August, and you can bet Google will appeal if things don’t go their way. That could drag the process out for at least another year, leaving a giant question mark over Alphabet’s stock in the meantime.

(Source: Giphy) 

In the end, what’s my take on the matter? Well it’s clear Google’s legal drama continues to heat up, and honestly? I’m here for it. We’re talking about one of the most powerful companies in the world facing antitrust trials that could rewrite the rules of the game that we’ve deemed normal for so long. 

In fact, it’s one of the reasons why I loved writing about Cebras and Nvidia yesterday. Sure, Google and Nvidia are the OGs, shaping our digital lives for as long as we can remember, but when sh^t hits the fan and hurdles are thrown… that’s when newcomers, and challengers arise where innovation becomes the main driver of dominance. 

My kind of “innovative” (Source: Giphy) 

So will Google's woes usher in another company (besides Bing for heaven’s sake, anything BUT Bing) to take the throne that gives us all a better online experience? Who knows, but what I do know is that regardless, Google isn’t going down without a fight. It’s got deep pockets, brilliant lawyers, and a business model that’s built like a fortress. That said, even the mightiest companies can’t escape the long arm of the law forever. Whether it’s search, ads, or both, Google’s empire definitely has its work cut out for it. 

In the meantime, keep an out on Google and stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time…

P.S. With 61% SHORT-INTEREST in Dark Pool data (aka the smart money OF the smart money), our Monday alert is set to SQUEEEEZE at any time! We’ve already seen a massive 96% move from the stock last week… could we see triple this week? Click here for the details and find out…

Stocks.News holds positions in Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft as mentioned in the article.