Investors On Twitter Won’t Shut Up About This Ticker…
Every time I log onto Twitter, I see investors hyping up Grab Holdings like it’s the next Palantir. And honestly? They might be onto something. Palantir shot up 420% in the past year, and while I’m not saying GRAB is about to pull the same stunt, the stock is already up 9% today and 58% in the past six months. So it’s clearly getting a lot of attention.
If you don’t live on Twitter and this is your first time hearing about it, GRAB is the super-app in Southeast Asia, operating in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It’s basically Uber, DoorDash, and PayPal all rolled into one, but with a stranglehold on its market. Unlike Uber, which still has to fight tooth and nail for market share, GRAB absolutely dunked on Uber in 2018 by buying out its Southeast Asian operations. Now, it holds four times the market share of its closest ride-hailing competitor while also dominating food delivery and digital financial services.
And business is booming. GRAB’s Deliveries segment hit $3.11 billion in Gross Merchandise Value in Q4 2024, marking a 17% year-over-year increase (which, by the way, was an acceleration from 16% in Q3… meaning growth is speeding up, not slowing down). This growth is thanks to a combination of affordability-focused pricing (aka: people love cheap food) and premium services that keep high-spending customers glued to the platform. Their GrabUnlimited loyalty program is proving to be brilliant, with subscribers spending 4x more and ordering 3x more frequently than non-subscribers.
(Source: Grab)
But the most impressive part to me is their cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart is pure genius. GrabMart is growing 1.9 times faster than GrabFood, and users who use both services order six times more frequently and have double the retention rate of those who only use one (because once you’re getting both dinner and groceries from the same app, there’s no going back). And just in case they weren’t already making money hand over fist, GRAB is expanding into merchant advertising solutions and dine-in services, making sure they squeeze out every possible dollar from their ecosystem.
So, it’s clear GRAB has its hands in just about everything. Ride-hailing? Check. Food delivery? Check. Fintech empire in the making? Double-check. Having a ridiculous amount of ways to make money is every investor’s dream, but let’s cut to the real reason you’re here… the stock.
GRAB’s valuation is looking dirt cheap compared to its growth. It currently trades at 5.5 times forward 12-month sales, while the industry average sits at 7 times (basically a “bargain” in Wall Street terms). Their current ratio of 2.7 smokes the industry standard of 2.16, meaning they’re sitting on plenty of cash to weather any economic storm (or, more likely, bankroll another round of aggressive expansion). Revenue estimates for 2024 are locked in at $2.8 billion, an 18.1% increase year-over-year, and 2025 projections expect another 17.7% jump to $3.3 billion… numbers so good they’d make even the most jaded investor do a double take.
But not everyone is out here writing glowing Twitter threads about GRAB’s future. JPMorgan just hit the stock with a downgrade, basically telling investors to take their profits and run after its monster rally. Their big concern is that expectations might be a little too generous, and any weak guidance from GRAB’s fiscal 2025 forecast could send the stock back down to planet earth. JPM also pointed out that the hype around a possible GoTo merger has inflated share prices, despite there being zero guarantee it’ll actually happen.
Even with the downgrade, some analysts are still telling everyone to smash the BUY button on GRAB. The company is making massive moves in financial services, which is a market ripe for disruption considering two-thirds of Southeast Asia lacks access to banking. That’s a colossal opportunity for GRAB to build a fintech empire and go head-to-head with traditional banks (who, let’s face it, are about as innovative as Major League Baseball).
Whether you think it’s a buy or not… GRAB is one of the most compelling emerging-market growth plays out there. You should definitely think about adding it to your portfolio.
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Stock.News has positions in Uber.