Intel is having itself a great start to their usual dreaded Monday, and for once (knock on wood), it's not because the board wants to oust the CEO or a delayed product rollout would normally cause shareholders to punch the air. 

Instead, the chipmaker is on the uptick thanks to some unexpected attention from Nvidia and Broadcom… two of the biggest names in AI chips. Reports say the chipmakers are testing Intel’s advanced 18A manufacturing process, signaling a potential breakthrough for the struggling semiconductor company. If this pans out, it could be the endorsement Intel desperately needs to prove it's still in the game.

After a pretty rough November through January where the stock fell from $26 down to $19… Intel’s stock has already tacked on over $20 billion in market value this past month, and today’s 5% premarket pop suggests Wall Street is starting to take its AI ambitions a little more seriously. The company has been aggressively revamping its Intel Foundry Services (IFS) division, hoping to carve out a larger portion of the lucrative contract manufacturing casserole. But let’s call a spade a spade… this division has been dragging Intel down harder than a bad Yelp review on a new restaurant.

Now, if Nvidia and Broadcom actually sign long-term contracts, that changes everything. Intel could suddenly go from the semiconductor world’s washed-up has-been to the AI revolution’s unlikely comeback kid. It would also be a huge middle finger to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which currently dominates the foundry business and has had a long-standing grip on Nvidia’s and Broadcom’s supply chains.

To be clear, Nvidia and Broadcom aren’t exactly moving in their furniture just yet. These tests are still in the early stages and could take months. They’re not even full chip designs… just wafers to test Intel’s process. And let’s not forget, Broadcom did a similar test last year that ended with its execs basically saying, “Yeah… nah.”

So while Intel’s 18A tech is being put through the paces, it doesn’t mean it’s about to start printing AI chips overnight. The foundry division has been burning cash at a rate that would make a DOGE government employee sick, and Intel doesn’t expect it to break even until at least 2027. But if these tests lead to actual contracts, it could be a massive turning point.

Intel’s resurgence is a huge geopolitical sticking point. The Trump administration has made it clear that the U.S. wants to bring semiconductor production back home, largely to reduce reliance on China and Taiwan. Intel is basically America’s only hope of competing with TSMC on domestic soil, so the government has a vested interest in making sure it doesn’t flop.

On top of that, Intel expects its foundry segment to bring in $16.47 billion in revenue in 2025… though almost all of that is from making its own chips. If Nvidia or Broadcom signs on, that number could balloon, giving Intel’s foundry business the legitimacy it desperately needs.

Intel wants to be the comeback story of the decade, but reality isn’t so kind. Its 18A (1.8nm) process is still unproven, and delays have haunted its past node transitions (hello, 10nm disaster). Oh and did I mention, TSMC is already shipping 3nm chips and preparing for 2nm, leaving Intel playing catch-up?

Its Ohio megafab won’t be ready until at least 2027, and despite CHIPS Act funding, it still has to convince big players like Nvidia and AMD to abandon TSMC for Intel Foundry. So don’t let this little piece of good news make you think Intel has it “made in the shade drinking pink lemonade.” They may have won this morning’s battle, but we’ll have to see if they can win the war.

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Stock.News has positions in Intel.