It is J-Powws world, and we’re all just living in it… 

The Fed finally cut rates by 25 bips, and Jerome "We’re in a Fog” Powell took the mic to remind everyone that he’s totally got this under control while holding a compass upside down. 

(Source: Giphy) 

After last week’s softer-than-a-six-whiskey-belly CPI report, this cut was pretty much a given. Powell opened his press conference with his usual calm “authoritah” saying, “inflation is cooling, employment is softening, and tariffs are trickling down the economy like acid reflux.” Which is spot on. Especially the labor market. Jobs are sagging, Amazon’s tossing warehouse workers like expired milk, and UPS just shipped 48,000 careers straight to the unemployment line. So yeah… Captain Obvious, meet Captain Monetary Policy.

(Source: Reuters) 

However, here was the curveball that no one had on their bingo card: Powell said a December cut isn’t guaranteed. Apparently, there’s “disagreement among peers” (translation: half the FOMC wants a 50-point slash, the other half wants to watch the world burn), and they’re flying blind because the government shutdown killed the data feed. Powell even said, “When you’re driving in fog, you slow down.”

Meaning, the Fed is basically operating off vibes and unemployment claims. GDP data is delayed, Jobs reports are missing in action (or terribly calculated), and inflation was last seen somewhere between the gas pump and the grocery aisle. They’re making trillion-dollar calls using “local business surveys,” which is like deciding heart surgery based on a WebMD article. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s treating the rate cut like a serotonin patch. Stocks ripped, traders fist-pumped, and risk went straight back on.

(Source: Giphy)

Behind the scenes, though, the narrative’s getting grim. Immigration tightening under Trump’s second term means fewer workers, higher wages, and slower hiring. And with corporate juggernauts already making their moves to trim the fat before the recession does it for them… you can clearly see the labor market isn’t soft… it’s molting. But hey, who cares when inflation is “under control”, rates are “normalizing”, and the economy’s “resilient”. Sounds legit. 

Which means… which means… until something breaks, enjoy your 25-point gift from Uncle Jay. Markets are high, data’s missing, and America’s favorite fog machine is still running on fumes. Until next time, friends… 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News holds positions in Amazon as mentioned in the article.