“Oh, so that’s why there’s 10 houses in my neighborhood that have had a yard sign out for months now…” -me after seeing the latest housing data

It might not be the greatest time to take up flipping houses as a sidehustle (that is unless you want to be paying the mortgage for 6 months). Because January home sales just gave every self-titled “expert” who’s been screaming about a colossal housing crash since 2020… actual data to support their prediction (better late than never, I guess).

Sales of previously owned homes dropped 8.4% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million. That’s the steepest monthly decline in nearly four years and the slowest pace since late 2023.

Did it save the market? Not even close. Because prices are still like (insert any software ticker)... Translation: Did someone say BUBBLE? More specifically, the median home price hit $396,800, up 0.9% year over year and officially the highest January price ever recorded. That’s 31 straight months of annual gains.

So let’s recap: Sales are down bigly… prices are still higher than a Willie Nelson concert… and inventory is tighter than Chris Christie’s pants during that one NYPD charity softball game.

(Source: Deadspin)

We’ve entered what economists are politely calling “a new housing crisis.” That’s Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. But according to him, the issue isn’t a crash. It’s paralysis. For example, there were 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of January… about a 3.7-month supply. A balanced market is closer to six months. So to put simply, we’re short.

Naturally you would think that means buyers are jumping at whatever house debuts on Zillow… that day. But the cold hard data shows homeowners aren’t desperate. Since January 2020, the typical homeowner has built about $130,500 in housing wealth. And if you locked in a 2.8% mortgage during the pandemic? You’re not selling. You’re framing that thing.

Meanwhile, homes are sitting longer… 46 days on market, up from 41 last year. And here’s the fun part… the only price segment that saw sales increase year over year? Homes over $1 million. Luxury buyers still out here showing that while money doesn’t solve all of life’s problems… it sure solves most of them.

(Source: CNBC)

As for the entry-level buyers (read: the elites refer to them as the poors)? Well, they’re getting absolutely smoked like a texas brisket, especially under $250,000. Affordability metrics technically improved. Wages are up. Rates are lower than a year ago. Yet Americans are “stuck,” according to Yun.

Which makes sense. Nobody wants to sell. Many can’t afford to buy. And your neighbor’s yard sign is becoming part of the landscaping. Spring selling season better bring some juice. Otherwise this market might be in a pickle.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.