For months, we’ve all been sitting around asking the same question… just how bad will Trump’s new auto tariffs hit the car industry? Like, break-their-backs bad? Or just “we’ll have to delay the Super Bowl ad” bad? Well, Ford finally answered… sort of. Their latest earnings dropped, and while it wasn’t exactly a crime scene, let’s just say the vibes were less “built Ford tough” and more “built Ford cautious.”

During the call, Ford CEO Jim Farley and crew confirmed the company expects a $2.5 billion total hit from Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts. And on top of that, they’re hoping to claw back $1 billion through some combination of pricing adjustments, cost cuts, and duct tape (probably literal in some cases), leaving a $1.5 billion hole in profits.

So yeah, they pulled their 2025 guidance kinda like when my uncle Tim pulled up Zillow listings after the HOA told him he couldn’t have two boats parked in his driveway anymore (when the future’s this foggy, it’s best not to make promises you can’t keep.)

That’s not to say things were all bad. Ford actually beat earnings expectations in Q1, with adjusted EPS at $0.14 vs the expected $0.02. Their $40.7 billion in revenue also topped estimates, though it was still down from $42.8B a year ago. So sure, there’s some “we still know how to make money” energy. But not a ton. Net income fell 64% to $471 million. Adjusted operating income fell to $1 billion. And Ford Blue (the gas-powered business) saw EBIT crash 90% to just $96 million.

The problem isn’t only the tariffs themselves… it’s the economic thundercloud they’re dragging behind them. CFO Sherry House didn’t even try to spin it, calling out “substantial industry risks” with the tone of someone who’s already seen the sequel and knows it doesn’t end well.

They don’t know if more tariffs are coming. They don’t know if China’s going to clap back with taxes of their own. They don’t know which supply chain part is going to go missing next or if emissions policies will suddenly get rewritten by the same people who change their minds on ethanol every election cycle. And those so-called tariff offsets (that allow companies to recover or reduce some of the added costs from tariffs)? There’s a growing fear they might be about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane.

If misery loves company, Ford isn’t alone. GM is projecting a $4 to $5 billion hit this year from tariffs… more than double Ford’s. That’s mainly because GM imports more vehicles, while Ford produces over 80% of what it sells in the U.S. right here at home. Still, no one’s walking away without a black eye (and a few missing teeth).

In the short term, Ford’s trying to keep momentum going. Their “employee pricing for everyone” promo in April gave buyers up to $4,000 off new cars, helping drive a 19% spike in retail sales. It worked… for now. But most of that was likely panic-buying before the tariffs kicked in. Ford itself expects U.S. auto sales to fall by about half a million units this year, once that sugar high fades and consumers come face to face with higher prices and fewer deals.

And yes, the sticker shock is coming. Ford says new car prices could rise 1–1.5% in 2025 as the cost of imported parts trickles down to the lot. It won’t show up all at once. But the next time you see a higher MSRP, just know… that cupholder probably crossed a border and got taxed on the way in.

PS: It’s a mess out there.

One day the market’s ripping, the next day it’s Black Monday all over again. Recent earning’s reports have been a total coin flip. One stock beats and explodes 30%… the next misses by a penny and gets sent to the Shadow Realm. And through it all, everyone’s begging for Jerome Powell to finally cave and cut rates.

But underneath all the panic headlines (“Inflation too sticky!” “Recession imminent!” “Tariffs round 4 incoming!”) something wild is happening…

We’re seeing violent price action. Especially in the small-cap space, where low floats and high anxiety are creating the perfect recipe for 100%+ pops before lunchtime. Some of these names are moving 200%+ in under 24 hours… and to our knowledge, NO ONE else is covering them.

Except us.

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Stock.News has positions in Ford.