Hey there, player. Today we’re serving Jamie Dimon walking off with the “Oracle’s” oracle, the PCE report finally showing up to work after a two-month bender, and Netflix waking up to find Trump standing over their $82B Warner Bros. deal like, “Cute acquisition you got there. Be a shame if one of my best friends… one upped it.”

If you stick around for the whole ride, bless you… that’s 2 minutes of focus most couldn’t muster on their best day.

Stay rowdy (within reason),

-Will

Buffett Gets Blindsided

Ole Warren had himself a case of the Mondays…

While Warren Buffett is out here holding his retirement tour together with little more than blind optimism and the kind of stubborn momentum only a 95-year-old billionaire can generate, his long-time protégé Todd Combs just looked at the $1.1 trillion empire… smiled… and peaced out to JPMorgan like Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss for LSU in the middle of a playoff run.

It’s giving: “Fun internship, thanks for the memories, I’m gonna go be rich somewhere else.”

So what the heck happened? Right as Buffett is prepping to hand the CEO crown to Greg Abel (26 days, but who’s counting), Berkshire dropped a Monday surprise: Todd Combs (investment manager, Geico CEO, and one of the only humans alive who can say “I picked stocks for Warren Buffett” without lying) is heading to JPMorgan.

And JPMorgan didn’t just hire him. They built a $10 billion Strategic Investment Group pointed at national-security industries specifically around him. You can practically picture Jamie Dimon slamming a briefcase of unmarked bills on the table like: “Son, you wanna come change the world?” (This “son” being 58 is beside the point.)

Buffett’s response was exactly what you’d expect: polite on the surface, exhausted underneath. Translation: “I’m 95, my best stock picker left, and sure, JPMorgan made a ‘good decision.’ Cool cool cool cool.”

This also landed right after Buffett told shareholders that Abel will make the final investment calls going forward… which quietly answered Combs’ internal question: “Will I actually be running this place when Warren leaves?” Answer: Not really, big guy.

Meanwhile at Geico, COO Nancy Pierce is stepping in as CEO… right as the CFO retires and the whole corporate structure shifts. Add in Berkshire announcing its CFO of 40 years will retire in 2027 and appointing its first-ever general counsel, and the “Buffett is nearing the exit” starter pack is complete.

Now shareholders are sitting there like: “Hey uh… who’s actually calling the shots on the $283 billion stock portfolio now?”

Let’s call it what it is: a massive W for Jamie Dimon, and a very “huh… interesting timing” moment for Berkshire.

The real entertainment starts now: does Berkshire evolve into the Buffett 2.0 dynasty investors dream about, or are we watching the opening scene of a decade-long unraveling? It’s gonna be a fun one to watch.

Quick(er) Hits

-PCE Finally Clocked In…

After ghosting us for two full months (big thanks to Congress), the September PCE report finally clocked in on Friday… and shockingly, the market didn’t immediately detonate. Core PCE printed 0.2% for the month, 2.8% year-over-year. Headline came in at 0.3%, also 2.8%. Truly beautiful numbers. The kind Trump would autograph.

And yet… rate-cut odds barely budged. We’re still sitting at an 87% chance Powell fires up the money printer on Wednesday. Why? Because this was the final boss battle before the meeting. 

All Powell had to do was see a stable print, clear his throat, and pretend there was ever a scenario where he wasn’t cutting.

The funny part is nothing in the report was new.

Goods prices jumped (tariffs being stage-5 clingers), services barely moved, and income + spending ran hot… meaning Donny Politics dividend checks can’t come fast enough. But the Fed only cared about one thing: stability. A nice, boring 2.8%. Powell’s love language.

Markets ripped, yields cooled, and suddenly everyone thinks they’re rich again… except that one hawkish Fed president still praying inflation pops out of the closet for one last jump scare.

Sure, the data is two months late and makes the whole process feel dumber than usual, but whatever. Powell’s cutting, the market’s handing out participation trophies, and we all pretend the next data point matters more than this one.

-IBM Drops $11B on the Data Fire Hose…

IBM woke up on Sunday, checked its pulse, and decided it was overdue for a headline. So naturally, Big Blue backed up an $11B Brinks truck for Confluent… the data-streaming company powering half the real-time feeds your favorite AI models inhale like a vape pen.

If you’re wondering why this matters: Apache Kafka (the tech Confluent monetized) is the plumbing that lets enterprises funnel ridiculous amounts of logs, events, clicks, and transactions into AI systems without the whole operation melting. 

Translation: IBM finally admitted it doesn’t have time to build modern infrastructure. Want to compete with Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, and every engineer in Shenzhen? Congrats, you’re paying the late-mover fee.

And honestly, they have no choice. In the AI era, data is gravity, and Confluent controls the gravity pipes. Kafka solves the “we have too much data and none of it is where it needs to be” problem every AI team has. AI eats that up.

As for why Confluent’s selling? Easy… the stock face-planted, growth slowed, private equity started hovering, and the whole data-infra sector is consolidating fast. When your share price is down 50% in five years, a fat premium suddenly looks patriotic.

Nothing’s official yet (IBM loves an announcement it later forgets) but if this lands, it’ll be one of the biggest AI-infra deals of the cycle. Everyone else is fighting for the models. IBM is buying the plumbing.

-Donnie Hits Netflix with the Uno Reverse…

“Don’t worry David, I won’t let it happen… not on my watch…” -Trump, probably

After Netflix spent Friday smashing “Add to Cart” on Warner Bros. like it was Prime Day… a cart that costs $72B, balloons to $82B with debt, and comes bundled with HBO, Batman, Harry Potter, and every millennial childhood memory… Sunday rolled around and everything changed.

Trump strutted down the Kennedy Center red carpet, looked at reporters, and basically said, “Cute deal you’ve got there… would be a shame if someone got involved.” Translation: “I am the antitrust department now.”

Normally presidents don’t micromanage mergers. They let the DOJ, economists, and dusty academics handle the 400-page PDFs. But historically, presidents also don’t call CNN “garbage on stilts,” extract $16M donations from studios, or blurt “quiet, piggy” at reporters. So yes… history is on PTO.

Trump told reporters the Netflix-Warner megamerger “has to go through a process”… which, again, is Trump-speak for “the process is me.” He even tossed in that Netflix’s market share is “very big,” delivered like Yelp feedback.

The comedy here? Netflix thought it had his blessing. Ted Sarandos trekked to the Oval Office in November, shook hands, probably complimented the curtains, and walked out thinking he’d secured the vibes. Then Sunday arrived and the vibes expired.

It gets swampier: Warner picked Netflix over Paramount-Skydance… a bidder with Trump-world connections. Now Trump’s making noise. Paramount’s already yelling “BIAS!” and insiders expect a counterbid or even a hostile play.

And regulators? Europe’s warming up the magnifying glass. This thing is about to face more scrutiny than a Tesla earnings call.

Meanwhile Netflix is prepping to argue it competes with TikTok and YouTube… meaning the $260B streaming giant is about to claim it’s being bullied by teenagers doing dances. Bold.

If I were Netflix, I’d stay nervous. Trump and Ellison are tight… tight enough that Trump handed him TikTok. So no… this saga isn’t done. Update: Moments before sending this, the David Ellison (armed with daddy’s moneybags) lobbed a fresh, last-second challenge to Netflix’s Warner Bros. bid (CNBC).

Movers and Shakers

Stocks slipped on Monday as Wall Street rolled into what’s shaping up to be a pretty important week, with the Fed’s final policy call of the year front and center.

The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq basically hit snooze and stayed flat. Not the most exciting start, especially considering stocks actually finished last week on a high note.

Now all eyes are on the Fed. Investors are scanning for anything that might throw off the growing expectation of a rate cut. And confidence is definitely creeping higher… markets are pricing in an 88% chance Powell pulls the trigger on Wednesday, up from 67% just a month ago, according to CME FedWatch.

In other words: everyone’s feeling pretty sure about what’s coming… they’re just waiting for Powell to make it official.

Today’s heatmap:

Who’s Up Next?

-Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) are stepping up to the earnings plate on Wednesday… let’s see if generative AI is paying rent or just sleeping on the company couch.

Lastly, make sure to check the official Stocks.News app (yes we have an app) to see the recap for today’s Stock Prophet Watchlist. Long story short, we had a BIGLY surprise 74% winner. If you haven’t yet, go here to download the app.