Fed’s Split, Yields Are Screaming, and Powell’s Practicing His Evil Monologue for Friday’s PCE Drop

Well well well… if it isn’t Wall Street discovering that begging Powell for rate cuts while the economy’s still doing lines off the bathroom floor has consequences.

For the third day in a row, stocks fell across the board (Dow down 0.4%, S&P 500 off 0.6%, Nasdaq shaved 0.7%) as investors tried to wrap their heads around too much good news (yes, really). Jobless claims fell. GDP growth got revised up. And now everyone’s second-guessing whether Jerome Powell’s gonna slam the Federal Reserve car into reverse.

Jobless claims fell to 218,000… way under expectations. Meaning: people aren’t losing jobs. Which means the Fed has an out to now backtrack on their “two more rate cuts before EOY” promise.

Adding more to the complexity of the situation, GDP expectations were 3.3%. Reality? Try 3.8%. That’s the kind of overshoot that reminds everyone this economy isn’t ready to be tucked in for the night just yet.

You’d think better economic data would mean stocks go up, right? Nope. This is Wall Street, where good = bad and bad = maybe good unless it’s too bad, then it’s bad again.

So now everyone’s spiraling. "Will Powell pull a U-turn? Is Daddy Dovish dead? Are we on the Volcker timeline now?"

Meanwhile, over in AI la-la land, the cracks are showing… BIGLY.

Oracle got straight-up roasted (again), dropping nearly 5% after Rothschild hit them with a sell rating. Why? Because apparently people are starting to realize AI hype doesn’t always equal long-term revenue.

To quote the analyst: “The market materially overestimates” Oracle’s future cloud revenue. Translation: “bro, it’s not that deep.”

Tesla also fell 4% after Europe sales bottomed for the eighth straight month.

Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields added insult to injury, with the 10-year poking up to 4.2%. For the uninitiated, that’s like a giant neon sign saying, “Hey tech bros, maybe chill.”

All of this is building toward Friday’s PCE inflation data, aka the Fed’s favorite thermometer for economic heat.

If PCE comes in too hot, expect Wall Street to start panic-selling like the fire alarm just went off at an options trading seminar. If it’s cool? The same clowns who were crying on CNBC might be back to bidding up tofu and transistors by lunchtime.

Things are so split at the Fed, it’s giving custody battle. One side wants to coddle the market, the other’s ready to send it to military school. And traders are left trying to guess which version of Powell will show up next.

And just to add a little more dynamite to the fire, DC is once again speedrunning a government shutdown. Federal agencies are prepping their “reduction in force” plans… so if you work for Uncle Sam, maybe call your boss before driving into the office Monday.

Now the market’s locked in on Friday’s PCE print like it’s the finale of Stranger Things, just waiting to see if Powell’s about to crawl out of the Upside Down and strangle the rate cut narrative with one carefully-worded “we remain vigilant.”

Whatever Powell decides to ruin next, our Stock Prophet Watchlist has been locked in… even while the rest of the market’s been sh*tting the bed.

Today we caught NUAI before it ripped 30%. Not quite the triple-digit astronaut we’re stalking, but in a market this sloppy, we’ll take it. If you got in? Hats off. If not? Eyes up… the next one’s coming first thing tomorrow morning.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Tesla as mentioned in the article.