Growing up in the North, Tim Hortons was far more than a coffee shop. It was the place. I have vivid memories of sitting shotgun in my dad’s truck on Saturday mornings, still half-asleep, pulling into a Timmies drive-thru while he ordered a double-double and I got whatever sprinkle-covered sugar bomb I could point at. It was like church… but with donuts instead of sermons. And if you’re from the South, you have no idea what I’m talking about. You probably think a “double-double” is a menu item at In-N-Out and not a sacred Canadian caffeine ritual.

But here’s the problem… Tim Hortons (and its parent company, Restaurant Brands International) is getting its ass handed to it. And if things keep trending this way, the next time I travel up north, I might be forced to walk into a Dunkin’. And that, my friends, is where I draw the line. Restaurant Brands, which owns Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, just posted a pretty sad excuse for a Q1 earnings report. Revenue came in at $2.11 billion… short of Wall Street’s expected $2.13 billion. Earnings per share was only 75 cents adjusted, versus the 78 cents analysts were hoping for. And net income (the only real number that matters), well it fell from $230 million a year ago to $159 million now.

But what really stung was the same-store sales data. Tim Hortons, which makes up more than 40% of the company’s revenue, saw a 0.1% decline in same-store sales. Analysts were expecting a 1.4% increase. But the Canadians weren’t the only ones to blame… Burger King dropped 1.3%, Popeyes tanked 4%, and the only real bright spot was international markets, which grew 2.6%. So basically, the places where people don’t know what a Timbit is are keeping the lights on.

To try and explain the miss, management pointed fingers at “weather” and “consumer caution”... which is a more overused excuse than “my dog ate my homework.” They even rolled out more value meal promotions, like $5 combos, hoping to win over budget-conscious customers. It didn’t work. So why, in the name of all things glazed and powdered, is Bill Ackman obsessed with this stock?

Ackman, through his hedge fund Pershing Square, owns over 7% of Restaurant Brands. That’s a $1.4 billion stake… about 16% of his entire portfolio. His average buy-in price is around $41, so with the stock trading at $67 today, he’s sitting on a solid gain. Even with the company’s recent challenges, Ackman hasn’t shown any signs of concern. If anything, his position suggests he’s still confident in the long-term outlook.

If you look at the details… it’s clear he’s not worried about the short term noise. He’s all in on the long-term vision… on RBI’s ability to expand, modernize, and figure things out. And with that said, on a positive note… the company did reaffirm its growth outlook, saying it still expects 3% same-store sales growth and 8% annual operating income growth through 2028. It’s investing around $400 to $450 million this year alone into expansion and tenant incentives. Oh, and they opened over 1,000 new restaurants in the past year.

So yeah, Tim Hortons (and its siblings under the Restaurant Brand umbrella) might’ve stumbled, but if Ackman’s vision holds up, this could still work out. And if it does, maybe my Saturday donut memories won’t be stuck in the past after all.

PS: It’s a mess out there.

One day the market’s ripping, the next day it’s Black Monday all over again. Recent earning’s reports have been a total coin flip. One stock beats and explodes 30%… the next misses by a penny and gets sent to the Shadow Realm. And through it all, everyone’s begging for Jerome Powell to finally cave and cut rates.

But underneath all the panic headlines (“Inflation too sticky!” “Recession imminent!” “Tariffs round 4 incoming!”) something wild is happening…

We’re seeing violent price action. Especially in the small-cap space, where low floats and high anxiety are creating the perfect recipe for 100%+ pops before lunchtime. Some of these names are moving 200%+ in under 24 hours… and to our knowledge, NO ONE else is covering them.

Except us.

Stocks.News Premium members are getting first dibs on these stealth explosions… thanks to our squeeze signal scanner and real-time insider trading tracker that zeroes in on the money before the momentum shows up.

If you’ve been whiplashed by this market or feel like your strategy is stuck in 2022, it’s time to flip the script.

Premium gets you:

• Two breaking trade alerts per week
   
• Access to the same scanners we use to track CEO buys and Capitol Hill moves
   
• Our custom market sentiment tool (that actually works)
   
• Premium stock writeups packed with actual analysis (that’s not boring)

Go here to become a Stocks.News Premium member now.

Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.