Sometimes, the best time to buy a stock isn’t when everyone’s excited about it… but when no one’s talking about it. Or even better, when the only thing they are saying is negative (you know, that classic “it's over” energy Wall Street loves to project five minutes before a recovery).

Think about it… who’s really getting the better return? The crypto trader who loads up on Bitcoin at $100,000 because Cathie Wood says it’s going to $1 trillion? Or the one quietly buying at $16,000 when the financial press is busy writing its obituary? (it’s not the guy retweeting price predictions in all caps).

It feels obvious in hindsight. But in real-time, when the headlines are loud and the mood is sour, most investors freeze. Fear sets in. Strong businesses get lumped in with the weak. And opportunities get ignored.

That’s exactly where Taiwan Semiconductor sits right now. The stock is down 23% year-to-date, and the story making the rounds has all the usual suspects: Trump’s tariff drama, AI fatigue, rising geopolitical tensions, and fresh competition from China (turn on the scary music). It sounds bad… until you actually dig into the facts.

Let’s start with what kicked off the latest selloff: Trump’s April 2nd announcement of a new round of reciprocal tariffs, including a 32% rate on Taiwanese imports. The market did what it always does with headline risk… panic first, ask questions later. Semiconductor stocks slid. TSMC dropped more than 8% in a matter of days.

But here’s what most people missed while refreshing their portfolios in mild panic: semiconductors were exempt. (Yes, exempt. Not “sort of,” not “maybe,” but completely off the list.)

In fact, the terrifying 32% rate was eventually cut to 10% across all countries, and again… chips were never even part of the deal. So while the market was acting like TSMC just got blindsided, their actual business remained untouched.

But that’s not the only part of the story people are missing. TSMC has spent the last two years quietly rewriting the geopolitical narrative around its business. The company committed more than $100 billion to build out U.S.-based manufacturing infrastructure… including three fabrication facilities in Arizona, two chip packaging centers, and a full-blown R&D site. Don’t mistake these for just hype… they’re expected to produce advanced 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer chips, which only a handful of companies in the world can even attempt to make.

And it’s genius. Think about it… TSMC is aligning itself directly with U.S. economic and national security goals. (they’re not trying to avoid being a target… they’re trying to become the teacher’s pet.) And while that strategic move plays out, TSMC continues to show strength where it matters: the numbers.

In Q1 2024, the company is expected to post a 56% increase in net profit, hitting $10.86 billion USD, according to FactSet. Revenue rose 42% year-over-year, reaching NT$839 billion (roughly $25.8 billion USD). And keep in mind, they managed this while absorbing a $170 million hit from a January earthquake. (Apparently, even natural disasters can’t shake this business off track.) Yet despite all this, the market still seems hesitant… and part of that has to do with shifting narratives around AI.

Some investors are starting to wonder if we’ve hit “peak AI excitement,” especially with cheaper models like China’s DeepSeek making noise. There’s concern that Big Tech might ease up on AI infrastructure spending. But here’s where the nuance gets lost. Companies like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google all rely on TSMC to fabricate their most advanced semiconductors.

According to TSMC’s own projections, AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a 45% compound annual rate over the next five years. Company-wide, they expect 20% annual revenue growth. That’s not a moonshot estimate… it’s based on real volume commitments from the biggest names in tech. And even with all those numbers? The stock is still trading at just 18x forward earnings. (at the same time we have companies that sell socks online that are pushing 30x.)

This is a business that manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips and supports the entire AI ecosystem… yet, it’s being treated like a company in decline.

So what’s actually driving the selloff? Not the fundamentals. It’s sentiment. The same cycle we’ve seen before: investors reacting to a swirl of headlines (tariffs, China, AI shifts, macro risk) and selling first, thinking later. But if you zoom out, the story is clear. TSMC is growing, strategically repositioning itself, and continuing to beat expectations. The business is strong. The valuation is attractive. And the selloff? In my opinion, that’s likely just noise.

These are the kinds of moments when long-term opportunities show up. Not when the story is perfect, but when it’s misunderstood.

Stock.News has positions in Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.