There was a time when Moderna was the hottest thing since GameStop sh*tposts on Reddit. Yeah, those days are officially over. The company that turned your aunt into an armchair immunologist just forecasted a depressing $1.5 to $2.5 billion sales drop for 2025. 

On Monday, Moderna dropped a forecast bomb that sent its stock plummeting. We're talking a 16%+ drop to around $35 a share … prices we haven't seen since April 2020, back when we were all doing pushups from home and wearing masks in the shower.

Moderna's stock was trading at nearly $450 during its pandemic glory days. Now it's worth about as much as a fancy dinner for two at Applebee’s (dessert included). 

I mean it wasn’t that long ago (2021/2022) that the vaccine maker made $18.4 billion and $19.2 billion in revenue, respectively. Now they're forecasting between $1.5-2.5 billion for 2025. How the times have changed.

CEO Stéphane Bancel dropped this steaming pile of guidance at the JPMorgan healthcare conference, trying to polish it up with some corporate speak about "adapting their COVID-19 business for the endemic setting." So… "Nobody's lining up for boosters anymore, and we're freaking out."

Want to know how bad it is? Walgreens just reported they gave out fewer than 1 million COVID shots in fiscal 2024, down from 4.7 million the previous year. I guess that’s what happens when you keep Fauci away from the microphone.

Moderna’s CFO, Jamey Mock pointed to four culprits for the company’s downturn: market share has fallen from $180 billion to only $13 billion, vaccination rates are falling, manufacturing contracts are shaky because countries aren’t panic-buying vaccines anymore, and uncertainty around CDC recommendations isn’t going anywhere.

The company's trying to stop the bleeding by cutting costs (the sign of a desperate company). They're planning to eliminate $1 billion in cash costs for 2025, with another $500 million in cuts planned for 2026. At this rate, they'll be running the company out of someone's garage by 2027.

Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar (clearly not afraid to be the bearer of bad news) basically said, "Hold onto your hats, folks… it's about to get worse." He's particularly worried about Moderna's spot in the S&P 500 going forward.

Moderna's gone from "pandemic savior" to "penny stock cosplayer" in a heartbeat. It's an important reminder that in biotech, you're only as good as your last breakthrough… or in this case, your last pandemic. Maybe they should start working on a vaccine for disappointing earnings reports.

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Stock.News has positions in Reddit, GameStop, Applebee’s, Moderna, and JPMorgan mentioned in article.