Dow Plays Dead As Target Moms and Home Depot Dads Square Off in “The Big Box Rumble”

"Come on, do something..." 

That was pretty much the rallying cry today as the market delivered all the excitement of a roadtrip to Illinois (I didn’t even know that much corn could exist in one place).

But the boredom wasn’t for lack of drama… it’s just that everyone, from the Wall Street suits to the reddit basement dwellers, had their attention glued elsewhere. On one side, you’ve got Trump’s headline-grabbing sit-down with Zelensky in DC, where whispers of a Russia-friendly “peace deal” are floating around just days after Trump’s Alaska meet-up with Putin. On the other side, you’ve got what I’m officially trademarking as The Big Box RumbleWalmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s squaring up with earnings that will reveal whether the American consumer still has gas in the tank or if we’re finally tapped out. When all was said and done, the Dow slid about 34 points (-0.1%), the S&P hovered near flat (-0.02%), and the Nasdaq squeaked out a microscopic +0.03%... 

But have no fear, there’s a legitimate reason this time. Are you ready for this drop of wisdom? Nobody f*ng cared about pumping microcaps. The entire focus was split between geopolitics and whether Target’s aisles are still filled with middle-aged moms impulse-buying Joanna Gaine’s line of overpriced cookware. 

Speaking of Target, the bullseye mutt actually got some love… shares popped 3% after Evercore suggested earnings could spark a “relief rally” on Wednesday. Walmart, Home Depot, and Lowe’s step up later this week, and those reports will be the ultimate lie detector test for whether Americans are still swiping or if inflation has officially KO’d the consumer. If the numbers bomb, look out below.

Crypto, naturally, couldn’t stay out of the chaos. Bitcoin dropped 2% to around $115K after hitting a fresh high last week, while Ether slid 4%. Nearly $500 million in long positions got margin-called into oblivion, proving once again that leverage is fun until it isn’t. 

And in the “markets are weird” category, Soho House decided to pull the plug on its messy public run with a $2.7 billion deal to go private, sending shares up 15%. Because apparently the best way to become “exclusive” again is to ghost Wall Street (and add Ashton Kutcher to the board).

Meanwhile, Powell’s big Jackson Hole mic drop is on deck for Friday (his last rodeo as Fed chair) and traders have already priced in an 85% chance of a September cut. Sidenote: Jerome has the opportunity to do the craziest thing on the way out and ruin all our hopes and dreams.

So yeah, the indexes may have gone nowhere, but don’t let that fool you. All eyez are on Trump, Zelensky, the retail giants, and Powell’s last rodeo. Everything else? Background noise… at least for now.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.