Dollar sinks to four-year low, Trump brushes off the decline

Jan 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar extended losses to sink to a four-year low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday.

The weakness was exacerbated by President Donald Trump saying the dollar's value was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much.

Here are some trader and investor quotes on the dollar's decline:

PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR RATES STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES:

"Trump said he’s not concerned about the currency’s decline and that's after the 10% fall in 2025. Trump's strategy is simple. Run the economy hot into the mid-terms and get ahead of the Fed that appears reluctant to cut by letting the USD slide. Trump is green lighting selling the dollar.

"Imagine holding USTs at 4% but losing 10% on the USD as a foreign investor. For investors it's all about hedging inflation risks. Hard assets and EM should outperform."

ANTHONY DOYLE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, SYDNEY:

"For Asia, a softer USD can be genuinely helpful, it eases imported inflation and takes some pressure off local currencies.

"But if the reason the dollar is falling is that investors are slapping a bigger credibility premium on the U.S., that usually brings more volatility and tighter financial conditions, and Asia doesn’t love that mix. Trump’s comment matters not because it’s a forecast, but because it signals tolerance and that thins the perceived backstop under the dollar, which affects positioning."

KYLE RODDA, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE:

"It shows there's a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar and it would appear that while the Trump administration sticks with its erratic trade, foreign and economic policy, this weakness could persist. The weak U.S. dollar flies in the face of otherwise strong fundamentals. The U.S. economy remains exceptional and the dollar should be reflecting that. But because of Trump's behaviour, it's not."

CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:

"To be clear, Trump’s comments this morning are not new. He has repeated many times in the past that he favours a weaker USD and complained about the weakness of Asian currencies. But his comments come at a time when there is widespread speculation of coordinated FX intervention between the U.S. and Japanese authorities, and therefore further fuelled expectations of a concerted attempt to weaken the USD."

STEVE SOSNICK, MARKET STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT: 

"A weaker dollar is a two-sided coin. On the one hand, it’s good for multinationals, which is why stocks didn’t move too much. If you have operations around the world and foreign currency revenue that will have a conversion advantage when you turn it into U.S. dollars, that will be good. On the other, it makes imported goods more expensive and there might be some inflationary impact from that, which is why we saw a bit of a move in bonds."

JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET CAPITAL, CHICAGO:

“The dollar is front and center of this sell America trade. It is funny that foreign investors still want to own U.S. bonds and stocks, they just don’t like the dollar, so they’re hedging the dollar exposure of doing that. There is a risk that the dollar falls too much and the Fed has to raise rates to stabilize it." 

MARC CHANDLER, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BANNOCKBURN GLOBAL FOREX, NEW YORK:

“It's not just that the President talked about foreign exchange today, but last Friday, it seemed that at least according to our best information, that the Federal Reserve checked on rates and said they were doing it on behalf of the Treasury, making it seem like the Treasury was doing a type of verbal intervention.

“That means that in the past, say, three sessions, you've had the Treasury Secretary of the United States and the President of the United States seeming to give people carte blanche to sell the dollar. They were already selling the dollar. … What they did was throw gasoline on the fire.”

SAM STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA, ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA:

“What I think Trump is trying to say is that a lower dollar is good for exports, which he is happy about. But if people are driving the dollar down, they are probably selling Treasuries, which is just going to exacerbate the carry trade unwinding that we’re already seeing. It will also propel gold and silver prices higher still. I don’t think it’s going to lead to a general market tantrum, though.”

STEVEN ENGLANDER, HEAD OF GLOBAL G10 FX RESEARCH AND NORTH AMERICA MACRO STRATEGY, STANDARD CHARTERED, NEW YORK:

“FX market participants are always looking for a trend to jump on. Often officials push back against abrupt currency moves but when the President expresses indifference or even endorses the move it emboldens USD sellers to keep pushing.”

EUGENE EPSTEIN, HEAD OF TRADING AND STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, MONEYCORP, NEW JERSEY:

 “I think the reason he was pressed to comment is because, obviously in the last couple of weeks, the dollar has started dipping against most currency pairs. I’ve been saying for the past six months now or maybe a year that the administration wants a weaker dollar. If you think about it, in some capacity, it helps monetize debt and improves the trade deficit, probably more the latter really. The point is, he’s basically making clear that he’s a president that cares about the trade deficit.”

JIM CARROLL, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, BALLAST ROCK PRIVATE WEALTH, CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA:

“Trump wants U.S. exports to benefit from a weaker dollar. But of course, not every part of the U.S. economy will benefit from a low dollar, so we’ll have to see how that plays out.

"The bigger problem is the way all of this uncertainty plays out. There is nothing markets hate more, but the administration keeps throwing out hand grenades to see how the markets will respond.”

(Reporting by Laura Matthews, Suzanne McGee, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Chibuike Oguh and Ankur Banerjee; Compiled by Megan Davies; Editing by Jamie Freed and Shri Navaratnam)