Did ASML Just Cancel The AI Apocalypse With a Single Announcement?

Earlier this week, traders couldn’t stop talking about how the DeepSeek news might single-handedly blow up this week’s earnings cycle. If there was even a sliver of truth to the hype, every tech stock and chipmaker was supposedly bracing for a reckoning “the likes of which we’ve never seen.” But someone forgot to tell ASML Holding.

ASML Holding

The Dutch chipmaker (which also trades on the U.S. market) just announced they booked $7.4 billion in orders last quarter… almost double what analysts expected. As you’d imagine, ASML’s stock did a happy dance, spiking 12% in Amsterdam (here in the U.S., it’s down 12% in the last five days, because there’s no logic in investing).

But that’s not the point… back to DeepSeek. Remember them? The Chinese startup that caused Nvidia to tank 20% in a day because they claimed they trained their AI model on a CEO’s salary while OpenAI continues setting fire to billions? (Efficiency, am I right?) Yet, ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet isn’t losing any sleep. He grinned in the shareholder meeting like a redneck who just won a fishing trip to the Florida Keys. "Lower-cost AI? Bring it on," Fouquet basically said. More AI, more chips, more money… It's simple meth (I mean math, sorry for watching too much Breaking Bad).

Christophe Fouquet

If chipmaking had a Mount Rushmore, ASML would be front and center. They just offloaded $3.2 billion worth of their top-tier EUV machines, and their Q4 bookings skyrocketed 169% from the previous quarter (just wait for all the analysts to pretend they totally saw this coming). And who’s footing this billion-dollar tab, you ask? Every major player that’s ever whispered “AI.” Meta is throwing up to $65 billion at AI projects this year alone, while OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are pooling $100 billion for an AI infrastructure blowout… code name: Stargate (backed by Trump).

 Uncle Sam

ASML is also keeping an eye on Uncle Sam. The U.S. has been slamming the door on China’s semiconductor ambitions like a bouncer at an exclusive nightclub (sorry, Beijing, your name’s not on the list). China was ASML’s biggest customer for five straight quarters, but now they’ve slipped to second place behind the U.S. Fouquet (ASML’s CEO) predicts China will “normalize” in terms of demand by 2025. Even though China’s chip thirst is cooling off, the AI boom in the West more than makes up for it.

 Sara Russo

Analysts like Bernstein’s Sara Russo are still backing ASML, with a price target of $960. Sure, the DeepSeek story still has more chapters to play out and could shake things up, but for now, ASML is cashing in big on the AI boom. And with an order backlog of $39 billion at the end of 2024, they’re not slowing down anytime soon.

PS: Our "Insider Trade Tracker" just flagged two power moves that you should know about. Peter Anevski, CEO of Progyny, and Executive Chairman David Schlanger both made their first-ever open-market buys of the company’s stock. Anevski dropped $3.03 MILLION to grab 209,500 shares at $14.48 each, while Schlanger followed up with a $2.2 MILLION bet for 150,000 shares at $14.68 a pop.

Progyny’s stock has been flirting with recent lows, but with a booming market for fertility benefits and major clients like Google and Microsoft on their roster, these guys are clearly betting on brighter days. Call it a growth story in the making—or at least that’s what their wallets are saying.

Moves like this are exactly why our tracker exists: to show you where the smart money is going before everyone else catches on.

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