It’s called the Trump Bump. That magical economic force people believe will immediately fix everything from gas prices to the cost of eggs (and maybe even reverse that receding hairline).

If you listen to some Americans, you’d think Trump’s presence in the White House would cause gas to drop to 99 cents, mortgage rates to slide back under 4%, and real estate in Miami to suddenly become affordable. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way.

Take Chevron’s latest earnings report. If Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” energy policy was truly lighting a fire under oil stocks, Chevron should be printing money like it’s 2016 again. Instead, the oil giant just posted a 40% earnings drop and missed estimates, sending its stock price the wrong way (down 4% so far).

Chevron reported $2.06 EPS in Q4, down from $3.45 a year ago. Analysts expected $2.11, so even Wall Street was feeling a bit too hopeful about oil stocks benefitting from Trump’s anticipated energy policies. And they weren’t alone, Exxon Mobil also reported an earnings drop, showing that the “drill and prosper” dream hasn’t quite materialized.

Chevron’s refining business lost $248 million, its first loss in four years. Turns out, when demand for fuel softens, even oil giants can’t just crank out profits on command. Oil prices aren’t exactly soaring either… WTI crude is floating around $72 per barrel, far from the $100+ days that made oil companies feel like kings. Brent is sitting at $75, and while that’s decent, it’s not the kind of pricing that gases up oil stocks. Now I will say Chevron’s worldwide oil-equivalent production grew 7% year-over-year to 3.338 million barrels per day but that doesn’t mean much when oil prices and refining margins are shrinking.

A lot of voters believe that Trump will wave his executive-order wand and suddenly gas will be $2 a gallon, mortgage rates will be affordable again, and housing will become less expensive. But that’s not how the economy works. Even if Trump greenlights every pipeline and offshore drilling project from Greenland to Timbuktu, oil markets don’t move overnight. Chevron and Exxon have already increased production, and yet gas is still hovering around $3.12 per gallon. That’s because global demand, refining capacity, and OPEC decisions matter just as much as U.S. drilling policy. Mortgage rates are dictated by the Federal Reserve, not the White House. And unless Jerome Powell is suddenly going to turn the money printer back on (which is unlikely), rates aren’t dropping to 3% anytime soon. If you’re waiting for Trump to magically make your dream home affordable, I’ve got bad news.

If Trump’s policies were truly an instant steroid shot for oil stocks, Chevron and Exxon wouldn’t be seeing double-digit earnings declines. Investors are clearly looking at the data, not just the campaign slogans. Chevron stock is trading in the negative after the earnings miss, and while Exxon eked out a slight gain, it’s still dealing with declining profits despite record production. Ironically, Trump’s recent tariff threats on Canadian and Mexican oil could ironically raise gas prices if enacted. If there’s one thing oil companies really hate, it’s policy uncertainty. A potential trade war with Canada over energy would not be exactly bullish for oil stocks.

The Trump Bump may be real eventually, but the idea that everything economic will change overnight is wishful thinking (like assuming that eating one salad will undo years of Taco Bell). Chevron’s earnings miss is a perfect example… despite higher production and Trump’s pro-energy stance, oil stocks aren’t flying just yet. Markets take time to react, and global economic factors don’t just bow to U.S. policy changes (no matter how many exclamation points are used in a tweet).

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Stock.News has positions in Exxon.