Old Warren is basically poking the entire housing market with a stick and yelling “come on, do something!”

With the Oracle of Omaha set to officially hang it up at the end of the year, this hasn’t been the Last Dance we were all hoping for. Instead of a Jordan-style fadeaway game-winner against Utah, it’s been more like a sleepy mix of pickleball sets, Matlock reruns, and the occasional moment where Buffett grumbles, “fine, I’ll throw a billion at it.” For instance, just a couple weeks ago he dropped nearly $1.5 billion into UnitedHealth after the stock hit a three-year low. That move made sense: Buffett has always had a thing for insurance plays. They’re predictable, they spit out cash, and they fit neatly into his empire. (Buffett loves insurance plays like my boomer neighbor loves talking about “back in my day” mortgage rates.)

But now things just got a little more interesting. Berkshire revealed new stakes in two homebuilders: 5.3 million shares of Lennar worth about $575 million and another $726 million position in D.R. Horton. In other words, Buffett decided to sprinkle nearly $1.3 billion into housing at a time when affordability is historically awful. And he didn’t announce it with a big press conference or a Buffett one-liner at a shareholder meeting… it just slid into the quarterly 13F filing like a casual TikTok soft launch. “Oh hey, by the way, I bought half a billion in houses you’ll never afford.”

(Source: Barrons)

Here’s where it gets strange. Lennar was trading at about $108.50 when he bought in, and while the stock has rallied more than 20% since April, forward earnings estimates for next year are actually down 10%. That means Buffett bought Lennar at its highest valuation in a decade. For a guy known for buying cheap and holding forever, it feels a little off-script. (The falloff is real).

Usually when news of a Warren trade sniffs Twitter his cult followers lose their pants… so why is no one talking about this one? Because the housing backdrop is still a mess. Prices are up 51.6% since 2020, while mortgage rates have almost doubled from 3.5% to 6.5%. That shift means the monthly payment on a basic home has nearly doubled too, but wages? They’re only up about 28%. So essentially, affordability today is somewhere between “LOL no” and “maybe if you start an OnlyFans.” Sure, mortgage rates dipped half a point since June, which technically gives buyers about 4% more purchasing power, but when you’ve been beat down by four years of price hikes, that’s hardly a reason to celebrate.

Inventory is just another massive migraine. Real estate data makes it look like listings are stabilizing, but most of that is just discouraged sellers yanking their houses off the market… like exes scrubbing their Instagram accounts after a breakup. That might smooth the numbers in the short run, but it sets up a potential wave of relistings in 2026 when conditions improve. Think of it like shaking up a Coke bottle and sticking it back in the fridge… you haven’t fixed the problem, you’ve just delayed the explosion.

As for Powell, I wouldn’t expect him to swoop in and save the day instantly. For instance, the lowest mortgage rate in the past year actually came the week before the Fed cut rates. Markets move ahead of Powell, which means unless we see a nasty economic crash that forces bigger cuts, mortgage rates are likely stuck around these levels. And if they do fall meaningfully, it probably won’t be in an environment that screams “strong housing recovery.”

So yeah, Buffett’s move isn’t much of a needlemover for housing stocks. It looks more like him glancing at the sector, throwing his hands up, and saying, “f**k it, let’s see what happens.” At 94, maybe it’s less about finding the perfect entry point and more about putting Berkshire’s $189 billion cash pile to work somewhere other than short-term T-bills.

So yeah, as a Buffett fan myself, even I have to admit this whole “farewell tour” has been kind of a dud so far… we can only hope Buffett’s got one last splashy move in him over the next few months to kick off a proper meme rally. And just hear me out… what better way to ride into the sunset than with a left-field bet on Cracker Barrel? The stock’s down about 55%, the brand is a cultural relic, and you know Warren’s crushed a few Old Timer’s Breakfasts in his day. It’d be the ultimate mic-drop exit. Forget housing stocks, just load up on rocking chairs and biscuits and watch FinTwit melt down trying to justify it.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.