If you’ve ever had to tell someone you scratched their car before they noticed, congrats… you’ve already mastered Boeing’s strategy this week.The aerospace giant decided to drop their financial stink bomb early, revealing they expect a $4 billion loss in the fourth quarter. 

That’s right, folks… Boeing’s numbers are so bad, they figured it was better to just rip the Band-Aid off rather than wait for investors to stumble across it on earnings day.

Here’s how bad it is: Boeing expects to post a loss of $5.46 per share. Analysts were bracing for a loss of $1.55 per share, which means the actual results are basically a disaster. Revenue is set to hit $15.2 billion, falling short of the $16.6 billion analysts hoped for. Oh, and they burned through $3.5 billion in cash last quarter… because when you’re sinking, why not throw more cash into the ocean for good measure?

The hits don’t stop there. A $1.1 billion charge from their 777X and 767 programs… thanks to a two-month machinists strike and a new labor contract… has landed squarely on the books. Meanwhile, their defense business is taking a $1.7 billion smackdown, courtesy of underwhelming programs like the KC-46A tanker and the perpetually delayed Air Force One project.

You have to hand it to Boeing… they knew this would sting, so they decided to rip the metaphorical duct tape off their fourth-quarter results early. This kind of pre-emptive strike isn’t common unless the numbers are really off the rails, which they are. And while no one expected a stellar quarter (this is Boeing, after all), these numbers feel more like a punch in the face than a slap on the wrist.

Remember that 737 MAX 9 door plug that flew off mid-flight last January? Yeah, regulators remember too, and they’ve been all up in Boeing’s business ever since. That slowed down deliveries and added another black mark to the company’s already bruised reputation.

And don’t forget about the strike: When machinists in Washington walked off the job for nearly two months which of course cost Boeing big bucks.

There have also been a host of underwhelming deliveries. Boeing handed over 348 planes in 2024. Wall Street wanted closer to 700. CEO Kelly Ortberg tried to put a shiny bow on the mess, saying: “We took important steps to stabilize our business during the quarter, including reaching a new labor agreement and conducting a successful capital raise.” In other words? “We know things are bad, but hey, check out my new corporate buzzword plan” The $20 billion they raised last quarter should help them keep the lights on, but investors are understandably skeptical. Boeing hasn’t posted an annual profit since 2018 (back when we were all obsessed with Black Panther and TikTok was just a sound clocks made).

Wall Street is cautiously optimistic (and by “cautiously,” I mean they’re basically cringing at Boeing like it’s the last slice of questionable gas station sushi). They’re hoping for 550 plane deliveries in 2025 and a potential $1 per-share profit. If that happens, it’ll be Boeing’s first annual profit in seven years. Seven! (That’s practically a lifetime in corporate years.)

As far as price targets go, some analysts still think Boeing might eventually pull a rabbit out of its hat (hope springs eternal, I guess). The stock’s sitting at $200, with price targets ranging from Rob Stallard at Vertical Research Partners with a doomsday $160 to Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies with a more optimistic $240 (though she’s already trimmed it down from $270).

The average target on Wall Street is $230, suggesting a 15% upside… assuming Boeing can finally get its act together.

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Stocks.News has positions in Boeing mentioned in article.