Bill Ackman, aka “Twitterfingers,” is back to his old tricks. This time, the Pershing Square CEO has decided to throw on a Warren Buffett costume and wave an $85-a-share offer at Howard Hughes Holdings. His new pitch is to turn the Texas-based real estate developer into a “modern-day Berkshire Hathaway” (his words, not mine).

Ackman’s Pershing Square already owns 38% of Howard Hughes, but he wants the whole pie. The offer represents a 38.3% premium to the company’s stock price before the announcement and an 18.4% premium to last Friday’s close. Shareholders can choose cash or roll their shares into Ackman’s new holding company, which he hopes will morph into Omaha 2.0. (Somewhere, Buffett’s quietly shaking his head.)

Since the news broke, Howard Hughes shares jumped 13% to $78.25… pretty close to that $85 mark. For context, Pershing first invested in the company back in 2010, paying $47.62 per share. Over the last 14 years, that’s turned into a total return of 35%, or 2.2% annualized. (Yes, you read that right… less than most savings accounts.) Ackman himself admitted to the pathetic returns, saying, “We’ve been pleased with the business but disappointed with the stock price.” Basically: The assets look great on paper, but the market’s been hitting snooze on the company’s story.

But while the potential for cash flow sounds promising, the company has yet to prove it can consistently deliver meaningful returns to shareholders. This isn’t Berkshire Hathaway with its portfolio of iconic, cash-gushing companies like Geico and Coca-Cola. It’s a $3.6 billion real estate developer trying to punch far above its weight in a game dominated by titans. Ackman envisions Howard Hughes as the centerpiece of a holding company that could one day rival Berkshire Hathaway. Shareholders in the new entity would theoretically benefit from diversified investments and acquisitions… assuming, of course, the plan works.

Now it’s time to just shoot straight: creating “Omaha 2.0” isn’t as simple as sticking a Berkshire label on a smaller fish. Buffett and Charlie Munger built their empire through disciplined value investing, impeccable timing, and a near-superhuman ability to identify undervalued businesses with compounding potential. By contrast, Ackman is leaning on a single real estate developer (one that is underperforming my savings rate) to kickstart his dream.

(Source: The New York Times)

Ackman’s offer isn’t a hostile takeover, at least according to him. CEO David O’Reilly and his team are expected to stay in their roles, and no layoffs are planned. Still, skepticism remains (and rightfully so). Can Howard Hughes, under its current leadership, truly deliver the results Ackman is promising?

The real question is whether Ackman can turn Howard Hughes into a platform for broader investments and acquisitions. If he can, maybe (just maybe) he has a shot at creating a mini-Berkshire. But for now, his track record with the company, coupled with its disappointing historical returns, makes this plan look completely unrealistic.

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