Most insider buys that pop up on our Insider Trading Scanner are about as insightful as a billionaire dropping $50,000 on a Rolex… it’s not a sign of anything big, just a power move (like an IG influencer going to vegas, blowing 10k, and then bragging about it for views). When a CEO worth eight figures offloads $100K of stock, it barely registers. That’s just another down payment on a vacation home or tuition for their kid’s “study abroad” semester in Florence (which is mostly wine tasting and Vespa selfies).

But this morning, something actually caught my attention. James Monroe, director and 10% owner of Globalstar, just dumped $1 million of his own cash into GSAT stock. Given that Globalstar’s stock is down 31% this year (while the company is making some big moves in satellite communications) this buy is hard to ignore.

On paper, Globalstar just had its best financial year in 33 years. Revenue hit $250.3 million in 2024, up 12% year over year, while free cash flow doubled. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $135.3 million, with a 54% margin. And yet, even with these numbers, Wall Street reacted with the excitement of a toddler being handed a plate of steamed broccoli. Two weeks after its earnings release, the stock was actually down 2%.

(Source: SpaceNews)

The hesitation makes sense. Analysts don’t trust Globalstar’s cash flow to remain steady. The company pulled in $185 million in free cash flow this year, but projections suggest that number could turn negative in 2025 before rebounding to just $69 million in 2026. That would leave Globalstar trading at a steep 39x price-to-FCF ratio, which is a bit much for a company whose cash flow is about as predictable as Kanye West’s Twitter account.

Then there’s the Apple problem. Globalstar provides satellite connectivity for Apple’s Emergency SOS feature, and Apple now eats up 85% of Globalstar’s total network capacity. That’s great… until Apple finds a better deal elsewhere. Just ask CoreWeave, which was supposed to get a $10 billion payday from Microsoft before getting dumped right before its IPO. If Apple ever scales back or finds a more attractive satellite partner, Globalstar’s revenue could disappear fast.

I will give them credit though, Globalstar isn’t just twiddling its thumbs and hoping Apple won’t ghost them. The company is making moves of its own, and its latest partnership with GCT Semiconductor signals a push toward long-term independence (or at least, a backup plan in case Apple stops returning their calls). The deal focuses on two-way satellite messaging systems for Globalstar’s mobile devices and modules, a step toward expanding beyond just one massive customer.

At the center of this new initiative is the RM200M product, which will integrate GCT’s IoT chip… a low-power, narrowband chip designed for GPS trackers and satellite-enabled IoT devices. On paper, this could be a huge deal. By pairing GCT’s 4G LTE and 5G IoT chipsets with Globalstar’s satellite network, future products will be able to seamlessly switch between satellite and cellular networks. This means Globalstar could tap into new revenue opportunities in asset tracking, emergency communications, and industrial IoT.

That all sounds great, but does this actually fix Globalstar’s financials? That’s where things get muddy. The company’s latest earnings didn’t exactly scream “growth stock.” Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $61.18 million, up 17% year over year, but still missed analyst estimates of $62.43 million. While that miss isn’t catastrophic, it reinforces investor concerns that Globalstar still relies way too much on Apple’s business to hit numbers.

More concerning was the adjusted EPS loss of $0.20… a brutal miss compared to the expected loss of just $0.02. For a company trying to prove it can survive long-term, a 10x wider-than-expected loss is about as reassuring as a parachute made out of paper towels.

Despite all that, Globalstar reaffirmed its 2025 revenue forecast of $260 million to $285 million. That’s in line with expectations, but it assumes Apple doesn’t bail and that the new IoT and 5G expansion actually gains traction.

So why did Monroe just buy another $1 million on GSAT? Maybe he’s convinced Apple’s business is safe, especially since Apple recently doubled down on satellite investments and is funding a second Globalstar constellation. Maybe he thinks the new IoT and 5G expansion will open up fresh revenue streams and reduce the company’s awkwardly massive dependence on Apple. Or maybe he just sees a 31% stock drop as a great dip buy.

Either way, Monroe’s seven-figure investment is worth noting, but I’d be careful blindly following his lead. If free cash flow turns negative next year, Globalstar’s valuation could get ugly in a hurry.

Stock.News has positions in Apple and Microsoft.