AI Sales Jump 700%, $35.1B Revenue And Stock Slides 3%... Did Nvidia Just Fry Wall Street’s Circuit?

You can stop nervously chain-vaping or chewing through Zyn pouches—Nvidia’s Q3 results didn’t bring the stock apocalypse some were bracing for. After reporting earnings that crushed expectations, the stock only dipped less than 2% in after-hours trading Wednesday and slid another 3% in Thursday’s pre-market. Not exactly a sell-the-news bloodbath, though it’s clear Wall Street remains twitchy.

For context, Nvidia’s stock fell 18% following a modest beat in Q2, triggering fears of another “we’ll take our gains and GTFO” frenzy. Analysts predicted institutional investors might offload shares to lock in profits before the year wraps up. But this time, the sell-off was more of a controlled slide, not a full-on crash.

Nvidia posted $35.1 billion in revenue for Q3, a 94% year-over-year jump, and miles ahead of Wall Street’s $33.2 billion forecast. Net income also outperformed with $19.3 billion, blowing away analyst estimates of $17.4 billion. For Q4, the company is guiding $37.5 billion in revenue (slower growth than past quarters, but the company can’t double their cashflow every year right?).

CEO Jensen Huang, the (Denny’s dreamer turned tech billionaire), gave quite the speech: “The age of AI is in full steam.” Nvidia’s AI-heavy data center segment saw sales rocket 700% year-over-year, reaching $30.8 billion. If you’re wondering who’s buying these chips, think every company clamoring to make their AI dreams a reality.

Not everything is peachy, though. Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip is a technological marvel but also a logistical migraine. Manufacturing involves advanced packaging processes, and a summer design flaw forced a costly “mask change” (basically, an expensive do-over), delaying production and denting chip yields. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Nvidia’s production partner, is racing to keep up, but demand is outstripping supply.

Huang admitted that ramping up production is a slow grind: “The laws of physics would say there’s a limit to how fast you can ramp.” Until these kinks are ironed out, gross margins are expected to take a hit, dropping to the low-70% range (think about how crazy that is, most business owners would kill for gross margins above 50%, and to Nvidia, this is a disappointment).

You’re probably sitting there wondering, “So why isn’t the stock pumping instead of dumping?” Well, despite stellar numbers… Nvidia is a victim of its own success. After an 800% stock rally over two years, Wall Street’s expectations are on par with asking Santa for a PS5 in 2020: unreasonably high (and pretty much impossible).

Analysts agree Nvidia’s fundamentals remain rock solid. Roughly 90% of analysts tracked by Bloomberg have a “buy” rating, while less than 3% recommend selling. And at a blended P/E ratio just north of 36, you could make a case that the stock isn’t wildly overpriced for a company that’s added $3 trillion to its market cap since 2022.

Nvidia’s Q3 didn’t spark a mass exodus like people leaving California during the pandemic, but the modest dip highlights that even the #1 stock in the world isn’t immune to profit-taking and sky-high expectations. With AI demand hotter than the surface of the sun and the Blackwell chip ramping up, Nvidia isn’t losing its throne anytime soon. 

But as Wall Street recalibrates its expectations, don’t be surprised if the stock keeps seesawing in the short term (especially with tax harvesting season coming up). For now, though, you can go back to studying sh*tcoins and take a break from puffing on that vape.

PS: Nvidia may have posted out of this world numbers, but even they couldn’t dodge Wall Street’s sky-high expectations. Makes you wonder if the stock market’s rules were written in invisible ink. Let’s face it, sometimes it feels like trying to read the market is like trying to decode a toddler’s crayon drawing (messy, confusing, and probably not what you think it is).

Speaking of things that don’t make sense, how’s that stock guru you’ve been following? Still calling plays like a quarterback who forgot the difference between “pass” and “punt”? Embarrassing, really.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.