Remember when Michael Jordan, flu-ridden and barely able to stand, still dropped 38 points on the Utah Jazz in Game 6 of the ‘97 Finals? That’s basically Upstart right now… down but never out, and absolutely torching expectations. (Jordan’s the GOAT by the way.)

This AI-powered lending company who prides themselves in quick, easy credit approval just pulled off a masterful comeback. After crashing a brutal 95% from its pandemic high, Upstart has come roaring back to life, surging 150% in the past year.

I get it… AI is the corporate equivalent of adding truffle oil to fries. Slap it on, jack up the price, and hope nobody asks too many questions. But unlike most companies tossing “AI” into their earnings calls like a buzzword bingo game, Upstart actually has the receipts to back it up. While banks are still evaluating borrowers with the same outdated metrics my grandma used to pick stocks (“I like the logo!”) Upstart's AI-driven underwriting model is making even FICO scores look obsolete and wildly inaccurate.

And the recent numbers make this even better. Revenue is up 56% year over year, loan volume has surged 68%, and their conversion rate (the percentage of applicants actually getting approved) jumped from 11.6% to 19.3%. 

And to top it all off, Upstart is tired of dominating the personal loan game… so they’re expanding into auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). 

In fact, auto loan originations spiked 61% last quarter, while HELOCs jumped 59%. And these two categories currently make up just 3% of Upstart’s total volume. That’s like saying Amazon is “just an online bookstore.” The real opportunity here is massive. The auto loan market alone is worth $677 billion (four times the size of the personal loan market). With homeowners sitting on $35 trillion in equity… if Upstart keeps scaling, we’re talking about a serious multiplier effect on its total loan volume.

Plus, they’re hosting an “AI Day” in May 2025, which is basically their version of Tesla’s Autonomy Day… except instead of robotaxis, we’re talking about making credit decisions smarter (and hopefully with fewer lawsuits). This could be a major catalyst, as AI hype continues to drive investor interest.

But before you start cashing out your retirement account to YOLO into Upstart stock, let’s simmer down. The stock is still down 75% from it's all-time high, and while the momentum is strong, some valuation metrics suggest it’s more expensive than an Uber ride during a hurricane. 

So, is Upstart the future of lending or just another hype train? Right now, they’re doing to traditional lending what Netflix did to Blockbuster, but the real test will be whether they can maintain loan quality while scaling into these new markets. If they pull it off, we could be looking at the Amazon of lending… not the Wish.com version.

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Stocks.News has positions in Upstart, Uber, Tesla, Amazon, and Netflix mentioned in article.