If you haven’t been following Bristol Myers Squibb this year, don’t worry… you’re in good company. Unless you’re a pharmaceutical analyst or someone who regularly reads the fine print on prescription bottles, BMY probably hasn’t been on your radar. But that might change after today.

That’s because news broke this morning that Bristol agreed to spend up to $11.1 billion to co-develop a new cancer drug with BioNTech. And while that sounds exciting, I think we need to be honest about what’s really going on here. Based on the last few quarters, this doesn’t scream strategy… it looks more like a company frantically patching leaks in a boat that’s slowly taking on water.

For context, Bristol’s stock is down 14% so far this year. And that’s after the company beat Q1 earnings and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Normally, that’s the kind of news that gets a stock moving in the right direction. But here? Crickets. I think that says a lot about how Wall Street sees the bigger picture. And that picture isn’t great.

Bristol expects full-year revenue to drop 6% in 2025. I’ll call it what it is: the fallout from getting bulldozed by the patent cliff. Several of the company’s highest-grossing drugs (Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, Abraxane) are now facing extremely tough generic competition. These were far more than minor products. They were the foundation of Bristol’s business. And now the house is starting to fall.

Just look at Revlimid. It used to pull in over $9 billion a year. This year it’s expected to do $5.8 billion. Next year it could go possibly as low as $2 billion. That’s not a normal drop. That’s what happens when your cash cow suddenly starts grazing on someone else’s field. And it’s happening across the board.

So how is Bristol responding? With its checkbook (which makes them look more desperate). Since late 2023, they’ve spent more than $20 billion trying to buy their way out of a decline. The biggest deal so far is the $14 billion acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics, whose main attraction was an experimental schizophrenia drug called Cobenfy (say that 3 times).

At the time, the move was pitched as a forward-thinking leap into neuroscience. But in reality, the drug flopped. It failed to meet its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial, and analysts quickly lowered their sales estimates. That $14 billion turned into an expensive reminder that “promising” doesn’t mean “profitable.” I’ll call it what it is: a $14 billion dud.

Which brings us to this week. Bristol’s new deal is with BioNTech… the same BioNTech that co-developed Pfizer’s COVID vaccine. The partnership centers around a cancer treatment called BNT327, and the financials are… HUGE. We’re talking $1.5 billion upfront, another $2 billion in guaranteed payments through 2028, and up to $7.6 billion in milestone bonuses if the drug performs. This is where things get risky. Because this isn’t a done deal… it’s a pipeline bet. And based on recent history, those don’t come with guarantees.

BNT327 is part of a new generation of drugs known as bispecific antibodies. In plain terms, it’s designed to hit cancer from two angles: it strengthens the immune system to recognize and attack tumors (like Keytruda), while also blocking VEGF, the protein tumors use to grow blood vessels. And while the science is compelling, science alone doesn’t pay the bills.

That's right, BNT327 is currently being tested in over 20 clinical trials, including late-stage studies in lung cancer. Early data shows it helps slow tumor growth, and BioNTech claims it could treat up to 3 million patients worldwide. But here’s the part that gives me pause: so far, it hasn’t proven it can extend overall survival. And in oncology, overall survival is the gold standard. Slowing tumor progression might look good in a press release, but if the drug doesn’t actually help people live longer, the FDA isn’t going to throw a parade… and insurers definitely aren’t footing the bill. That’s the cold reality. And to me, BNT327 still falls squarely in that gray zone. The early data is interesting, sure. But it’s missing the one metric that matters most.

That’s bad news for Bristol. Their $14B Cobenfy acquisition already flopped, Revlimid’s falling apart, and BNT327 is the only thing left with real potential. If this one doesn’t work, they’re screwed.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.