Let’s talk about America’s unofficial emergency fund… Walmart. The same place where you can buy a rotisserie chicken, a lawnmower, a wedding ring, and possibly a new set of tires all before noon. It’s basically the duct tape of the retail world (cheap, durable, and always there when the economy starts looking tired).

And if you’ve been holding Walmart stock for the past decade, congrats… you’re doing well. Over the last 10 years, Walmart delivered a 17% compound annual growth rate, and it’s up 138% since the start of COVID. Even in 2024, the stock ripped +74%, while Target flopped (again).

But 2025 hasn’t quite been the same vibe. Walmart’s been tripping over a few metaphorical pallets, and the stock is already down 17% from its all-time high. If you squint past the fresh produce aisle and into the valuation section, things are starting to look a bit... off.

Eight insiders recently sold off $64 million worth of shares. And how many insiders have bought, you ask? Exactly zero. Not even the guy overseeing frozen peas wants a piece right now. To be fair, $64 million is barely a sneeze for a company worth $699 billion (it’s the Walmart equivalent of someone returning a $5 toaster) but if too many people start heading to Customer Service, that return line starts looking like a big problem.

I’m sure you won’t be able to guess what’s got insiders nervous… Tariffs. Trump’s proposing a fresh 20% tariff on imports from China, and with roughly 20% of Walmart’s goods coming from there, the company’s stuck in a retail love triangle… raise prices and anger customers, squeeze suppliers and risk a Beijing cold shoulder, or eat the margin hit and hope nobody notices.

Well, someone noticed. When Walmart asked its Chinese suppliers for a 10% price cut to soften the tariff blow, Beijing basically replied with a diplomatic “LOL, no.” Now Chinese officials are calling in Walmart execs like irritated PTA parents demanding answers.

And if you take a step back from the tariff tornado, Walmart’s valuation is still looking a bit frothy. It’s trading at a P/E ratio of 32… down from 41 earlier this year, but still pricey for a company growing sales at 3–4%. Sure, the e-commerce division is doing well, with 20% sales growth last quarter, and yes, Walmart feeds half the country every week. But when earnings guidance is flat and consumers are getting pickier with their wallets, that premium starts to feel more Whole Foods than Walmart.

Now, let’s not get carried away… Walmart isn’t disappearing. It has over 10,750 stores across 19 countries, sells 60% groceries, and has absolutely dunked on Target, whose stock has only crawled up 12% in five years, compared to Walmart’s 146%. Even with tariffs, diplomatic drama, and analysts warning it’s overvalued, Walmart’s still a beast.

That said, short-term turbulence is a real possibility. Right now, Walmart is being forced to choose between profit margins and your grandma’s ability to stock up on bulk pickles. Add in the factor that insiders are selling with not a single buy order this year, and I would definitely be nervous about buying anymore Walmart stock for now.

Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.