Apple investors be like… 

(Source: Giphy) 

While we were all stuffing our faces with Grandma’s famous pecan pie for Thanksgiving, a Senior VP inside of Samsung’s HQ slammed his head into a conference table and whispered, “Not like this.” Because for the first time in 14 years, Apple is about to out-ship Samsung. Yes, the same Samsung that’s been treating the global smartphone market like a personal fiefdom since Obama’s first term just got dethroned by a company that sells a new color combination on the same phone with a sock and calls it innovation.

(Source: CNBC) 

In short, Counterpoint Research dropped the numbers: Apple is projected to ship 234M units while Samsung is only projected to ship 235M units. A nearly decade-and-a-half streak evaporated by the iPhone 17 being… well, an iPhone. The reason primarily, is that this is literally just the ‘Rona upgrade cycle hitting its “alright, this thing’s dying” moment. Millions of people who panic-bought whatever brick was in stock in 2020 are now staring at cracked screens, battery health sitting at 68%, and cameras that fog up if you breathe on them. Perfect timing for Apple to do what Apple does best: quietly raise ASPs while everyone pretends they had a choice.

To be fair though, the  iPhone 17 didn’t just sell… it steamrolled. 12% higher than the 16 series in the U.S. 18% higher in China, where Apple supposedly “lost momentum.”

Turns out China’s “iPhone is dead” narrative was somewhat of a hoax, and everyone rotated back to the ecosystem like nothing happened. Meanwhile, Samsung's getting tag-teamed by every Chinese OEM with a pulse. The low-to-mid tier… Samsung’s old stomping grounds… has become a cage match where Xiaomi, Oppo, and every unpronounceable Shenzhen brand shows up with spec sheets that look fake and prices that should be illegal. Translation: Samsung lost the volume game, and Apple wasn’t playing that sport to begin with.

(Source: Giphy) 

The best part (for Apple investors) is that Counterpoint is saying Apple holds the crown through 2029. Why? Because Apple has something Samsung doesn’t: a religion. 358 million second-hand iPhones in circulation between 2023 and mid-2025.  Every one of those people is going to “finally upgrade” eventually, and Apple doesn’t even have to market to them… it just naturally happens. 

So yeah… for the first time since the early iPhone era, Apple’s walking into 2025 wearing the global smartphone crown again. Not because the iPhone 17 is revolutionary, but because timing plus ecosystem lock-in is worth more than Samsung’s entire midrange strategy. Bigly. Which means, definitely keep your eyes on Tim Apple & Co. and place yo bets accordingly, friends. Until next time… 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News holds positions in Apple as mentioned in the article.