“I ain’t dead yet!” -the U.S. labor market, clutching its last W-2

Even with the government shutdown now eligible for Social Security benefits, ADP says private employers somehow scraped together 42,000 new jobs in October… the first gain since July. It’s the kind of small victory that makes economists high-five and investors exhale… at least until they remember Michael Burry just went “Big Short” on Palantir and Nvidia.

All the action came from big companies (250+ employees), which added 76,000 jobs. Small businesses? They collectively lost 34,000. Translation: mom-and-pop shops are still getting folded like lawn chairs.

(Source: CNBC)

The biggest job gains came from trade, transportation, and utilities (+47,000) and education and health services (+26,000). Meanwhile, the “professional and business services” crowd bled 15,000 roles, and the information sector (you know, the people supposed to be building our AI future) somehow lost 17,000 jobs. So much for robots saving humanity; looks like they’re just replacing their creators.

Nela Richardson from ADP hit the nail on the head: “While big companies make headlines, small companies drive hiring.” Think of it like a football team… the big corporations are the quarterbacks, but small businesses are the offensive line. And right now, the line’s collapsing.

For instance, the private sector has averaged only about 60,000 new jobs per month lately… a far cry from the six-figure growth earlier this year. And with wages standing still, inflation’s been the uninvited roommate who keeps raiding the fridge.

The data drought is real. Normally, Wall Street would get the official Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday to cross-check ADP’s numbers. But since the government’s still in “lights out” mode, the BLS has gone silent: meaning economists are piecing together the labor picture from ADP’s spreadsheets like it’s a DIY IKEA project with half the parts missing (we’ve all been there).

For now, it looks like corporate America’s hoarding what’s left of the job market while small businesses are stuck fighting over table scraps. The Fortune 500s are still hiring… everyone else is just trying to keep the lights on.

The Fed clearly saw the storm clouds gathering and hit the panic button early, cutting rates last week to 3.75-4% in what can only be described as a preemptive “oh crap” moment. But if job growth doesn’t pick up soon, Jerome Powell might have to hose off that money printer, give it a pep talk, and fire it back up.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.