Well it’s Monday, and Wall Street Logic 101 strikes again. This time, the victim is none other than the vaccine conglomerate, Novavax. 

(Source: Market Watch) 

Now of course, given the company's recent earnings numbers, the negative sentiment that sent shares plunging is definitely somewhat justified, considering it missed EPS estimates by a whopping -41.76%. However, in terms of the 30,000 ft. view of the company's financials - Novavax is still crushing it. 

(Source: Giphy) 

For instance, while revenue dipped -2.11% year-over year, it actually beat analysts expectations by 8.54% while the diluted EPS (the EPS that includes the boring bond dudes), skyrocketed 70.69% year over year. 

Interesting, more details please.

(Source: Giphy) 

As we talked about previously, Wall Street Logic 101 does whatever it wants whenever it wants. And while a small blimp on the balance sheet could send a stock nosediving as if the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, it’s important to look at the full 30,000 foot view before making any solid decisions going forward. 

For example, despite Wall Street’s doom and gloom vibes, Novavax is actually crushing it compared to last year as net profit margin jumped 185.88% year-over year, while operating income increased 131.05% over the same 12 month time frame.

(Source: Market Screener) 

This had a direct impact on Novavax’s net income as cash flow skyrocketed 179.93% year-over-year, with net change in cash reporting an impressive 267.75% increase. Yet, the stock price still plummeted after the earnings call? Wtf?

(Source: MarketBeat) 

What’s even more interesting is that based on 38 analyst ratings that we’ve seen on our Stocks.News screener, the consensus price target for Novavax is sitting pretty at $74.67, indicating a mouthwatering 543.71% upside from its current trading level of $11.32. 

In fact, out of the 38 analyst ratings, 11 are screaming “strong buy”, while 21 are sitting at a “buy” for Novavax. Compare that to the 6 analysts who are sitting on their hands with a “hold”, and the consensus is clear: Despite the recent earnings and the -10% aftershock, Novavax may be worth a deeper look going forward.

Especially considering that just five months ago, Novavax sealed a $500 million upfront payment with potentials of a $1.27 billion windfall in revenues on a partnership with French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi. 

(Source: Fierce Pharma)

So given all of this, what's the takeaway here when it comes to Novavax? Is it a buy or a sell?

Well, it’s complicated. Like trying to explain TikTok to your grandparents kind of complicated. Because when it comes to the financials, it’s clear that a dip in recent EPS numbers (missing estimates by -41%), isn’t exactly the full picture. The company is obviously doing something right as the cost of revenue fell -43.99% year-over-year ignited multiple triple digit wins in net income, profit margin, and cash on hand.

(Source: Google Finance)

So it’s obvious that the financials are looking pretty impressive despite the sole factor of Novavax’s earnings per share. 

However, with that said, when it comes to the technical analysis aspect, it’s not exactly a Picasso masterpiece. With 9 out of 17 indicators sitting in the sell category…

While 8 out of 15 moving averages show more downtrend ahead, the Williams is the only indicator showing us oversold signals. So the mixed bag when it comes to Novavax’s price action is definitely real af. 

Looking ahead though, while the technicals are lagging in the face of an impressive fundamental standpoint, Novavax is currently working on a COVID-Influenza combo vaccine for the 2026 flu season and targeting the latest COVID-19 variants. Plus, they've got a preclinical RSV vaccine in the works. 

So the company is definitely not just sitting around playing solitaire, considering the big moves the company has up its sleeve. But due to the EPS miss, it seems that’s the only factor Wall Street Logic 101 is looking at. 

(Source: Giphy)

So regardless of whether you’re a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty kind of person, Novavax is still showing some serious financial muscle ahead in an industry that continues to grow more competitive with a new Covid variant coming out every 10 minutes. Of course only time will tell, if Novavax will be the next big hit for portfolios, or not - but still, the full picture tells a far different story than just the initial backlash of the earnings report. 

In the end, don’t sleep on Novavax. Keep an eye on it, especially if we started seeing a shift in the current technical analysis aspect of the company. Right now, the financials over a 12 month time frame are no doubt impressive, so once the technicals flip bullish, well then, we may just be off to the races folks.

At the time of this writing, Novavax is up +2.41% on the day (and up +136.36% YTD).

Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.